What does this mean for next season, and how often will teams remain in these positions there come May? Let's break it down.
Does being valedictorian at Christmas guarantee the title?
Historically, being at the top on Christmas Day presents a mixed outlook.
In 16 of their 32 Premier League seasons, the team top of the table at that stage has gone on to lift the trophy – that's a 50% success rate.
But Liverpool have a less encouraging record. This is the seventh time they have finished first on December 25, but they have only managed to convert one of those results into a title, in the 2019-20 season.
Where will your team spend Christmas? 🎄#Celebration supplies pic.twitter.com/gvP1axTs40
— English Premier League (@premierleague) December 23, 2024
In fact, Liverpool have topped the table at Christmas more than any other English club in history, achieving the feat 21 times and winning the league 11 of them.
Recent history shows the unpredictability of leadership at Christmas. For example, Arsenal topped the table last season for the fourth time during the Premier League era, but failed to secure the title, as had happened in their previous three attempts.
By contrast, Chelsea, Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City all went on to win the title every time they were top on Christmas Day.
Interestingly, teams outside the top four at Christmas have sometimes stepped up to claim the title.
This has happened four times, including last season when Manchester City rose from fifth place, six points behind Arsenal, to claim their fourth title in a row.
Who's on the European sites?
The top four currently includes Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and surprise rivals Nottingham Forest.
Bournemouth, who are in fifth place, may creep into the Champions League conversation depending on the performance of other English clubs in European competitions.
Chelsea's 04/05 record of 15 goals conceded in the Premier League is officially safe for another season 🤩 pic.twitter.com/dQe3ExglQC
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 22, 2024
Aston Villa and Manchester City are sixth and seventh respectively, and could qualify for the Europa League and Conference League, depending on the local cup winners.
It is worth noting that last season's Christmas top seven saw significant movement towards the end of the campaign. Only West Ham (sixth at the time) dropped out, while Chelsea rose from tenth place to finish in the top seven.
Landing: Who's in trouble?
At the other end of the table, Ipswich, Wolves and Southampton occupy the relegation zone.
Southampton's position looks particularly dire, eight points adrift of bottom. Wolverhampton and Southampton have recently appointed new managers in a bid to turn their fortunes around.
It's rare for the same three teams to remain in the relegation zone at Christmas there in May, but it does happen.
Last season, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United remained in the bottom three from Christmas until the final day.
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 23, 2024
This has only happened in four other Premier League seasons:
- 2001-02: Derby, Leicester City, Ipswich
- 2012-13: Wigan, Queens Park Rangers, Reading
- 2020-21: Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United
Hitting the bottom at Christmas offers little hope, with only four teams out of 32 escaping relegation in such a scenario. Exceptions include West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester City (2014-15) and Wolves (2022-23).
Interestingly, two Premier League-era clubs were in the top ten at Christmas yet still suffered relegation: Norwich City (7th in 1994-95) and Blackpool (10th in 2010-11).
For context, the team currently in seventh place – Manchester City – is unlikely to follow in those steps.
What lies ahead?
As the league enters the second half of the season, Liverpool's chances of turning their Christmas lead into a title remain uncertain given their history, while Southampton face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.
With European football on the horizon for many teams and the relegation battle heating up, the Premier League promises plenty of drama in the coming months.
