Confronting Colombia Trump is a warning to all leaders

Less than a week into his presidency, Donald Trump instigated his first international tariff dispute. The target is not China, Mexico or Canada — frequent subjects of his ire — it is Colombia, one of America's closest allies in South America.

Colombia's crime was refusing to allow two American passengers carrying deported migrants to land because they were military personnel, not transport aircraft. Apparently this was enough to prove Trump dropped the hammer.

“We will not allow the Colombian government to violate its legal obligations regarding the admission of criminals forced into the United States,” Trump posted on his social media post.

On top of the 25% tariffs he said he would impose, Trump said the United States would introduce a travel ban and “immediate visa denial” on Colombian government officials, as well as its allies and supporters.

In his first week in office, the US president appeared to prioritize executive action on immigration over trade measures – even if the latter was a key campaign promise. As if to drive this point home, the first announced tariff is enacted to punish a nation seen as not being sufficiently supportive of America's new onerous immigration policies.

On a day when Trump didn't have a public appearance — he's at his resort in Miami, after playing a morning round of golf — the president chose to make an example of Colombia.

It serves as a warning to us allies and adversaries alike: If you do not cooperate with the United States, the consequences will be severe.

This is a massive challenge for Colombia, but it is also a test for the new Trump administration.

If his sanctions lead to higher US consumer prices, will the US public target? Would they be willing to tolerate some of the financial pain incurred to advance Trump's immigration priorities?

The United States imports about 27% of its coffee from Colombia, according to the USDA, as well as other commodities such as bananas, crude oil, avocados and flowers. Coffee imports alone are worth around $2bn (£1.6bn).

Importers could turn to other sources to avoid this, which would hit Colombian producers by reducing a key market.

Colombia's President Gustavo was quick to respond on Sunday afternoon, launching his retaliatory strike in a war of words.

It's no secret that Petro doesn't like Donald Trump — he's harshly criticized his policies on immigration and the environment in the past. This is just shocking.

In a long response to

Petro went on to describe himself as “stubborn” and said that although Trump might try to “carry out a coup” with “economic might and arrogance,” in short, he's fighting.

Not only did Petro appear to threaten his own tariff of retaliation, he even said: “From today on, Colombia is open to the whole world, with open arms.”

While Trump is unlikely to take on threats from Colombia, it is something that should worry a US president who wants to tackle immigration. Incoming administration officials have made clear that the mission will require looking beyond the Mexican border.

Trump's choice for Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau has long argued that “working with other countries to stop these migrant flows” should be a “global imperative for American foreign policy.” Sunday disagreement may make working together less likely.

Tens of thousands of migrants each year from around the world, from India to China, head north toward the United States after landing in South America and traveling through Colombia via the Darien Gap—a major choke point north of the Panama-Colombia border. It is a dangerous journey usually facilitated by criminal gangs.

US retaliatory measures will undoubtedly make it difficult for the Trump administration to work with Colombia to stop this pattern.

President Petro hinted at this in his response to Trump's actions, stating that if talks on managing immigration through Darien are suspended, “illegal activities will increase.” These comments could be seen as a veiled threat from more undocumented immigrants on the way.

Petro was quick to say that his country would not reject the citizens of Colombians deported from the United States — they should only receive “dignified treatment.” He even offered to use his presidential plane as an alternative means of transportation.

According to senior US officials, speaking up about a background to CBS, the BBC's US partner, is not enough to avoid sanctions.

However, despite Sunday's day of high drama, there appears to be a path to this surprising diplomatic standoff—if Egos and National Pride don't get in the way.

But this kind of definition is a test of will. And from the looks of it, this is just Trump's opening move.