An aerial view of a container ship leaving a shipyard in Qingdao, east China's Shandong Province.
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Chinese exports and imports in December exceeded expectations by a wide margin, with exporters continuing to front-load shipments ahead of pending tariffs imposed by US President-elect Donald Trump, data released by the Chinese Customs Authority showed on Monday.
China's exports in December jumped 10.7% from a year ago, exceeding 7.3% growth expectations in a Reuters poll. This compares with growth of 6.7% in November and a rise of 12.7% in October.
Imports rose 1.0% last month from a year earlier, customs data showed, reversing the contraction in the previous two months.
Analysts had expected imports to decline by 1.5% year-on-year. This is compared with A The largest decline was 3.9% in November and 2.3% in October.
Last year, China's total yuan-denominated exports jumped 7.1% from the previous year, accelerating from Modest growth of 0.6% in 2023Customs officials said in a press conference on Monday.
China's imports increased last year by 2.3%, up from 2.3%. Decreased by 0.3% in 2023.
The prolonged real estate crisis has hurt domestic demand, making the country more dependent on exports to support its growth.
Economists expect there will be trade It greatly supported China's economic growth last year. GDP data is scheduled to be released later this week.
Exports have been a rare bright spot in China's battered economy amid escalating trade tensions with its main trading partners – the United States and the European Union – but that growth could be at risk after Trump returns to the White House.
Exports of electric vehicles and semiconductors It rose 13.1% and 18.7% last year, respectivelyAccording to customs officials.
Looming risks
Trump – who is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20 – has raised concerns about increasing tariffs on Chinese exports. I have It pledged to impose an additional 10% customs duty. On all Chinese goods entering the United States
Since late September, the Chinese authorities have intensified their political support to support the country's economy as growth falters and social tensions escalate. But “remnants of caution and restraint remain,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, said in a note last Friday.
China has Reducing interest ratesrelaxed Real estate purchase restrictionsInjecting liquidity into the financial market as well Disclosure of debt swap program To relieve financial pressures on local governments.
“Although senior leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi still appears reluctant to embrace the additional degree of stimulus required to combat deflation,” Wildau added.
“Policymakers need to keep some stimulus powder dry to enable an adequate response if the impact of tariffs is severe,” he added, suggesting that uncertainty over export growth creates an additional reason for Beijing to avoid a “big bang (stimulus) approach.”
Among a slew of key economic data to be released this week, China is scheduled to release GDP figures for the full year as well as for the fourth quarter on Friday. Growth is expected to reach 5.1% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024, according to a Reuters poll.
This year, the senior leadership pledged to conduct the strengthening Domestic consumption is a top priority With the expansion of fiscal spending to finance consumer goods trade policy and equipment modernization. It was launched in July last yearTrade-in program supports consumers to Replace old cars or home appliances And buy new ones at a discount.
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