By Ellen Chang, Joe Cash, and Ethan Wang
BEIJING (Reuters) – China's exports accelerated in December while imports recovered, ending the year on a positive note as the world's second-largest economy braces for rising trade risks with the incoming U.S. administration.
US President-elect Donald Trump, who is set to return to the White House next week, has proposed imposing huge tariffs on Chinese goods, raising fears of a renewed trade war between the two superpowers.
Adding to the challenges, unresolved disputes with the European Union over tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric cars threaten to derail China's ambitions to expand its auto exports.
“The trade burden at the front became more pronounced in December as a result of the effects of the Chinese New Year and the inauguration of Donald Trump,” said Xu Tianchen, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. The festival will be held from January 28 to February 4 this year.
He added: “Import growth could be supported by stockpiling commodities such as iron ore, as part of (China’s) ‘buy low’ strategy.”
Customs data showed on Monday that outbound shipments in December rose 10.7% year-on-year, exceeding growth expectations of 7.3% in a Reuters poll of economists, and improving from a 6.7% increase in November.
Imports surprised to the upside with 1.0% growth, the strongest performance since July 2024. Economists had expected a 1.5% decline.
China's trade surplus grew to $104.8 billion last month, up from $97.4 billion in November.
A Chinese customs spokesman told reporters that there was still “huge” room for imports from the $18 trillion economy to grow this year.
Export momentum has been a crucial driver for China's economy, which remains weighed down by a prolonged slump in the real estate market and fragile consumer confidence.
However, there have been signs of stabilization following China's stimulus push in recent months.
An official survey showed that factory activity remained modestly expanding for the third month in a row, while services and construction rebounded in December.
South Korea, a leading indicator of China's imports, reported an 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December, indicating resilient demand for technology products.
China's iron ore imports rose in 2024 for the second year in a row to reach a new peak, as lower prices stimulated buying and demand remained resilient despite the country's protracted real estate crisis continuing to weigh on steel demand.
The world's largest agricultural importer also bought a record amount of soybeans last year, after buyers concerned about trade tensions between the United States and China rushed to secure US soybeans before the inauguration of next US President Donald Trump.
But data showed that imports fell last year, marking their first annual decline in the past two decades outside of declines caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, as tepid economic growth and peak fuel consumption dampened purchases.
China's top leaders have pledged to ease monetary policy and adopt a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, aiming to offset external pressures and stimulate domestic demand.
The government is targeting economic growth of about 5% this year, a target that has proven difficult to achieve at times in 2024.
