Written by Ethan Wang and Joe Cash
BEIJING (Reuters) – China's exports likely expanded at a faster pace in December, suggesting producers raced to move inventory to key markets ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House this month and new trade risks.
The average forecast of 17 economists in a Reuters poll showed that outbound shipments are expected to rise 7.3 percent from a year ago in value terms, up from 6.7 percent growth in November.
Imports in December are likely to have contracted by 1.5%, narrowing from a 3.9% decline in the previous month, indicating a rush by factory managers to secure technology products in anticipation of tightening semiconductor export controls from the United States.
The data, due for release on Monday, point to sustained strength in China's exports, even as the broader economy faces challenges such as a protracted property market crisis and deflationary pressures.
However, there are still differing views among China watchers. JP Morgan forecast a 7.9% increase in exports, while Standard Chartered forecast slower growth of 5.4%.
Most economists polled by Reuters agreed that imports remained in contraction for the third month in a row, although Standard Chartered Bank forecast modest growth of 1.5%.
South Korea, a leading indicator of China's imports, reported an 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December.
Exports could remain resilient at the start of 2025 as exporters continue to front-load, Barclays (LON:) Research said. However, doubts loom over Trump's tariff threats, which could lead to a trade war between the US and China.
Trump, who has proposed imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, recently denied a media report that his team was exploring scaling back tariff plans to cover only vital imports due to concerns about inflation.
Meanwhile, trade tensions with the European Union remained high, with EU tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles straining relations.
Beijing has responded by targeting European goods such as brandy with anti-dumping investigations amid negotiations to eliminate or reduce tariffs.
Economists continue to call on China to rebalance the economy by shifting reliance on investment and exports towards consumption to avoid a long period of low growth.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised “more proactive” policies to stimulate growth in 2025, while policymakers recently pledged to “vigorously” boost consumption and expand domestic demand.
Reuters reported that the government expects to maintain the economic growth target at about 5% this year.
China's trade surplus in December is expected to reach $99.8 billion, up from $97.4 billion in November.
