by Frank Bay: Fans are clamoring for boxing's mega-event of the year, Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence “Bud” Crawford, in 2025. Well, not much. Boxing hasn't had a legitimate major crossover event since the recent Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson Circus event and the recent Gervonta 'Tank' Davis vs. Ryan Garcia's mega-buy of 2023, who has reportedly reached the tipping point of 1 million PPV buys. And let's be honest, Davis vs. Garcia wasn't a huge event like the last true crossover event with the mass appeal of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.
Canelo is the latest PPV boxing star where the model of success is changing due to live streaming, such as the Paul vs. Tyson event on Netflix. But the last time Alvarez reached the million mark was against Gennady Golovkin in their second fight during HBO Days in 2018. Since then, Alvarez's numbers have declined, and he has only reached around 500,000 to 650,000 reported PPVs. It's only getting close to 1 million, with Caleb Plant hitting 800k in 2021, which seems like about 20 years ago, considering the boxing landscape now with no more Showtime or HBO.
The fight is well discussed, and the fight Bud and Turki Al Sheikh are begging for is Canelo Alvarez. But honestly, it's not a huge event that would reach the $1 million gold standard, seeing as how every Bud PPV without Errol Spence failed, with the reported Israil Madrimov fight generating a measly 150k PPV buys. Turk took a bloodbath at the event, allegedly losing millions even with a stacked undercard and Eminem performing. The truth is that the fight is not a crossover fight and will likely go to a maximum of 750k PPV. The only other fact is the David Benavidez fight, which will likely do a max of 800k as it's not a big crossover event, given Benny's PPVs have flopped big time, allegedly making 75k for his fight with Demetrius Andrade on November 25, 2023. .
The reality is that Alvarez is in no man's land, and his options as a challenger to Dmitry Bivol or Artur Beterbiev are less impactful than fighting Edgar Berlanga because Berlanga was a bigger name statewide. I can't make a sound prediction because the future looks bleak for Alvarez and his choice of challengers in 2025. The Jake Paul fight will be the trend as he could compete for the boxing action that boxing so desperately needs with Mayweather vs. Mayweather. Manny Pacquiao. Alvarez's current 168-pound division has decent fighters but no star appeal in Christian Mbele and Diego Pacheco and unknowns in Osley Iglesias and William Skull. No one would be willing to pay Alvarez north of $35 million to fight on PPV. If we want to make a Bud vs Canelo MEGA fight, Turki Al-Sheikh will need to pay at least $100 million to attract interest from the US market. If anyone can, it's Turkish.
Moving on to the list of boxing stars, we have “The Beast” Naoya Inoue and Tank Davis. The sad truth is that I don't see any named antagonist except for each other becoming truly crossover stars. Inoue, the No. 1 fighter in boxing, has reached his limit. Top Rank may be envisioning another meteoric rise like Pac-Man because Inoue has the Asian market like Manny did, but he can't attack through weight class after weight class, which is not fair to expect from him. But if Inoue has to fight a breakout battle, he's Davis' tank in fantasy land. Inoue has good opponents in front of him at 126 with Bruce Carrington and Rafael “El Divino” Espinosa. However, none of those fights will draw the wrath of the American media like Mane did with his rivals Eric Morales and Marco Antonio Parreira. Look for Inoue to play it safe in 2025 and set up an all-out Sunshine showdown with Junto Nakatani.
Last and certainly least is Tank Davis, who has done nothing to take his throne as the face of boxing after the great success of his relationship with Ryan Garcia. Beating Frank Martin did nothing for him after he lost power and took a year off after being on a heater, with that fight reportedly making less than 200k PPV. With Vasiliy Lomachenko opting to sit out and fix his back, Davis was left without a viable name to sell his PPV event. He decided to go with Lamont Roach, and now, with multiple cancellations, people are wondering if the fight will take place in 2025. Davis must know he needs a big name in 2025, but there aren't many other than the man he's already beaten, Ryan Garcia. . The truth is, the other names aren't stars like Ryan. Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez, and Devin Haney are all damaged goods. With Manny Pacquiao's rumored return, the obvious mega event will be the Pac-Man vs. Tank Davis fight. A Mane vs. Davis fight would put Davis ahead of Alvarez, but something tells me Davis and his officials want to play it safe like they always have. Noting he ventured, he lost nothing.
