Before the penultimate round of the Champions League stage, the champions of England, Spain and France are in danger of automatic elimination.
when Manchester City When Paris Saint-Germain visits and Real Madrid host Salzburg on Wednesday (both 8pm GMT), all three heavyweights in the competition know that a win will make the final round of the match much more comfortable.
The new 36-team Champions League format means teams must finish in ninth and 24th places to earn a place in the knockout stage, while automatic progression as one of the top eight teams is not out of the question for the three sides.
101GreatGoals.com takes a look at how close each of the established contenders are to elimination and what task lies ahead in the final two matches of this stage.
Man City: Danger in Paris?
Seven points in their opening three games put City on course for automatic progress, but their subsequent form reflects their surprising domestic troubles since November – their worst ever under Pep Guardiola.
Taming defeats came to Sporting and Juventus on either side 3-3 draw at home against Feyenoord It was memorable for the wrong reasons, as the 2022/23 champions squandered a 3-0 lead after 74 minutes.
That left them one point above the playoff places, albeit with a goal difference of at least four better than any of the teams in the bottom eight.
With PSG unbeaten at home domestically this season and in greater need of a positive result, a point would be welcome for City, and they will almost certainly leave their fate in their hands when they host a Club Brugge side they currently lead by two points on January 29. (8 pm).
A win would put them in a stronger position to finish ninth and sixteenth and be a seed in the playoff draw. Just two wins would give them a chance of automatic passage.
City were last eliminated in the first round in the 2012/13 season, when they drew all their home matches and lost all three away matches in a group that also included Ajax, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Manager Roberto Mancini left at the end of the season.
Guardiola, who won the tournament in 2009 and 2011 with Barcelona, has always reached the knockout stages during his 17 years as a coach with the Spanish club, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
The Spaniard's shortest spell in the competition as a coach came in his first season at the Etihad Stadium in 2016/17, where he lost on the now-defunct away goals rule following a 6-6 aggregate draw with Monaco in the round of 16.
Paris Saint-Germain: In the elimination places
Runners-up in the 2019/20 season and reaching the semi-finals in two of the past four seasons, Paris are in the most precarious position of the three giants heading into the seventh round, one point away from escaping the elimination places.
The fee may not be enough to lift them above the line. A point would lift them above Dinamo Zagreb, who are immediately ahead, if the Croatian club loses to Arsenal on Wednesday (8pm kick-off), but Stuttgart, who are level on points with Paris Saint-Germain, expect to win on Tuesday (8pm kick-off) at the Slovan Stadium. Bratislava is still searching for its first point.
Paris Saint-Germain has gone on an eight-game winning streak, but has never faced an opponent as potentially dangerous as City along the way. They will be hoping to save their best for the final, having followed up a one-point European run from four games with a 3-0 win over Salzburg in the sixth round.
Defeat will pile on the pressure before PSG head to Stuttgart on January 29 (8pm kick-off), when they will face opponents who started the year with three straight wins to move up to fourth in the Bundesliga.
Paris have endured several disappointing campaigns – crashing out in the round of 16 in 2021/22 and 2022/23 despite having Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar in their ranks – but have progressed from the preliminary stage on each occasion during their current campaign. 12 consecutive years of participation.
The last time the team fell at the first hurdle in the competition was in the 2004/05 season, when coach Vahid Halilhodzic was replaced by coach Laurent Fournier in February.
Current coach Luis Enrique has never been eliminated from the top stage when he was a Champions League coach, winning the title in his first season with Barcelona in 2014/15.
The 54-year-old led Paris by nine points at the start of an 18-game unbeaten run in Ligue 1 this season, although they had to come from behind to win 2-1 at Lens on Saturday.
“I'm very happy with the win,” the former Spain coach said afterwards, describing PSG as “good dynamic” and holding “a lot of promise” in the Champions League.
Real Madrid: The defending champion is under threat
Along with City, Real Madrid were the only team to win all six of their group stage matches on course to extend their record 15th Champions League win in 2023/24.
An early exit seems out of the question for the competition's dominant force, but defeats to Lille and Liverpool and a home loss to Milan mean Madrid are two points above the elimination places.
At home on Wednesday (8pm kick-off) to RB Salzburg After five defeats and one win, Real Madrid will be strong favorites to finish the round looking at the top – but ending their two-game winning streak in all competitions could leave them needing a win. The result after a week (8pm) in Brest, currently in the automatic knockout places.
Even the prospect of a play-off would be a surprise to a team that includes the likes of Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham, not least because Real Madrid have reached at least the semi-finals in 14 of their 16 seasons.
They have never been out of a first place in their 70 years of involvement, despite a round of 16 exit in 2018/19, where they sacked two coaches during their first season after the team left. Cristiano Ronaldo is the all-time top scorer in the Champions League.
They were eliminated at the same stage the following season, losing both legs in the round of 16 2-1 to Zinedine Zidane's City.
boss Carlo Ancelotti He won the Champions League twice as coach with Milan and three times as coach of Real Madrid, but the most successful coach in the history of the competition was eliminated at the group stage three times.
Ancelotti's Parma team lost only one match out of six, but was eliminated from the tournament in the 1997/98 season, when the second-place finishers were eliminated. The Italian then finished last in the group with Juventus in the 2000/01 season and third with Napoli in the 2018/19 season.
When are the Champions League knockout stage matches held?
The teams that finish between the top and bottom eight will enter the play-offs in the knockout stage.
The first leg matches will be held on February 11 and 12, followed by the return matches a week later. The draw to determine the matches is scheduled to take place on January 31.
When is the round of 16 of the Champions League?
The top eight teams and playoff winners will participate in the first legs of the round of 16 on March 4 and 5, followed by the return matches a week later.
The draw for the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will be drawn on February 21.
