the The American housing market was already struggling Under the weight of high mortgage interest rates, A Low offer from current homes for sale and historically high houses prices.
Now a tariff on building materials add more pressure.
Nearly 30 % of the soft wood consumed in the United States are imported, largely from Canada. The wall board, known as gypsum, is imported from Mexico. The head of the tariff of 25 % Donald Trump will make goods than the two main commercial partners, these products are much more expensive. the Mexico tariffs have been postponed For Monday, it is still on the table in the future.
“More than 70 % of two basic substances depend on home builders – from soft wood and gypsum – from Canada and Mexico, respectively.” “Definitions on wood and other building materials increase the cost of construction and inhibit the new development, and consumers end up paying customs duties in the form of high home prices.”
Home prices have already ended More than 40 % since the beginning of the epidemic and are still 3.8 % higher in November, compared to the previous month of November, according to the latest reading of the S&P Corelogic index. That annual increase was above 3.6 % in October.
Duties on building materials can make the market more difficult for buyers.
“We believe this may increase the worst crisis of the ability to bear the costs for the first time. On the positive side, it may increase the pressure on Congress to enact policies that encourage more construction at the entry level, including expanded tax credit programs,” Garrett Seburg wrote. . TD Cowen Washington Research Group.
The potential home buyers leave a property for sale during an open house in a neighborhood in Clarksburg, Maryland.
Roberto Schmidt AFP | Gety pictures
NAHB asks the Trump administration to exempt building materials from 25 % definitions, pointing to his executive order on the first day of his presidency, which sought to “expand the range of supply”.
While the United States has increased timber production in recent years, 70 % of the country -raising and installations imports – $ 8.5 billion – come from Canada. They are already subject to a 14.5 % tariff, so Trump's new policy will raise it to more than 39 %.
And 71 % of the imports of lime and gypsum products are from Mexico, with a total of $ 352 million. Other materials such as steel and devices are obtained from China. Trump Put an additional tariff by 10 % On the goods from China on Saturday.
New duties on imports from China, Canada and Mexico can raise the costs of building materials at $ 3 billion to 4 billion dollars if they all enter, which affects the ability of builders to complete projects, according to NAHB.
The definitions are likely to reach smaller home builders with more strict margins, but large builders are not immune.
Sherrill Palmer said: “Even with a smaller part of the wood coming from Canada, and some materials from Mexico, we will all be affected-which in turn can affect consumers and their ability to buy a house in the short term.” , The Chief Executive Officer of HomeBoilder Taylor Morrison, based in Arizona. “While some consumers are still struggling to overcome the high interest rates, my honest hope is that this is short -term.”
Builders are already competing with a shortage of employment, which is getting worse only after the Trump administration began the collective deportation of illegal immigrants. Nearly 30 % of construction workers are estimated to be immigrants, and a large share of these workers is not documented, According to the National Migration ForumA group of invitation to immigration.
“You can all run them outside the country, but who will build homes?” Bruce McNelag, CEO of Kinloch Partners, based in Nashville, is the developer of a single family rental house.
While the bulk of the impact of definitions on building new housing, the current market can also feel the effects. If the costs of other consumer goods increase, all potential buyers will have a less backup money to provide an introduction batch.
There was also an expectation that interest rates would decrease this year, but if inflation increased again due to tariffs, prices may rise. These classes for each of the economic facts and emotional perceptions of personal wealth can reach the next spring market.
