Open Editor's Digest for free
Rula Khalaf, editor of the Financial Times, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Senior members of the British Cabinet warned Prime Minister Tony Blair in 2004 that free movement from new EU member states, including Poland, could put huge pressure on the benefits and housing system, newly released documents show.
The decision to allow migrants from 10 eastern and central European countries, including Hungary and the Czech Republic, to work in the UK with few restrictions has led to a sharp rise in immigration.
In 2005, a year after the decision, net migration from the EU to the UK reached 96,000 people, according to the Office for National Statistics, a sharp rise from 15,000 people in 2003.
By the time of the Brexit referendum in 2016, this increase had helped achieve success. Immigration A hotly contested political issue.
Files published by the Cabinet Office showed that Jack Straw, the then Foreign Secretary, and John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, raised significant concerns ahead of the decision.
Straw warned Blair in a letter dated February 10, 2004, saying: “We could be in for a very difficult situation if we get this wrong.”
He asked the Prime Minister to consider postponing the implementation of this policy, noting that this would allow Britain to “monitor the movements” of migrants to other countries before deciding on implementation.
While the United Kingdom, Ireland and Sweden allowed freedom of movement immediately in May 2004 with minimal restrictions, many other countries, including France and Germany, chose to delay full access to their labor markets, citing concerns about mass migration. States had the ability to impose restrictions until May 1, 2011.
The UK's decision was partly based on the Home Office's assessment that only between 5,000 and 13,000 migrants would arrive each year from new EU member states. However, this has proven to be a gross underestimate.
Annual net migration from EU member states reached 142,000 people by 2014, according to estimates by the Office for National Statistics at the time, sparking debate over Britain's membership of the European Union.
On 16 February 2004, Prescott wrote to Blair formally urging a postponement. As Deputy Prime Minister, he cited concerns about housing, with migrants expected to be drawn to London and the south-east to look for work, with the “likely result” being “overcrowded housing in poor areas” due to an inability to afford rent.
“As events have shown, we got it wrong,” Straw told the Financial Times.
He added: “If we had had good evidence about the impact of us lifting restrictions on internal migration to the UK, I am clear we would never have agreed to lift them.”
“Maintaining the restrictions, in hindsight, will make some difference. . . And to the result of the 2016 referendum; It's impossible to say whether that's enough to swing it or not.
Never-before-seen documents published by the National Archives show that Blair took these concerns into account, questioning officials about whether the initial “work permit” scheme was workable. However, he ultimately decided against this policy.
A briefing document for Blair dated July 2 showed that 9,000 workers registered to work in the UK in the two months after May 1, with 50,000 to 60,000 likely to arrive in the first year.
Officials warned of an “elephant trap” in the media that publishes these numbers.
To counter accusations that arrivals would lead to an increase in benefits claims, Blair asked officials to “publish in our media” reports that Poles would prefer to work illegally in Germany, rather than legally in the UK.
He asked advisers to ensure they offered the “toughest possible benefits package” to counter potentially excessive claims from new EU migrants.
Blair declined to comment.
