Arctic development frozen despite Trump's interest

The Arctic recently made headlines after Donald Trump reiterated his desire to buy Greenland. Trump cited national security interests, but for many the territory's vast mineral wealth is the main attraction. However, economic development has stalled elsewhere in the vast Arctic region.

Working conditions in the Arctic Ocean are particularly difficult at this time of year for Norwegian fisherman Sønder Alnes Bonismo.

The sun last rose at the end of October, and is scheduled to appear in the sky again until mid-February.

In addition to the endless darkness, temperatures can drop to as low as minus 40 degrees Celsius, and storms can produce huge waves.

Mr. Alnis Bonismo, 30, works two six-hour shifts a day, during five-week tours on a ship called Granite. One of the largest industrial fishing vessels that fishes in the Arctic waters north of Norway, and off the coast of Greenland, does not stop during the winter.

Unsurprisingly, it prefers endless daylight in summer. “I like it when the weather is nice, where we're not sent crashing into the walls, and so, like we do during storms, when the waves are fairly big,” he grinned.

Mr. Alnis Bonismo is one of the participants in the so-called “cold rush” in the Arctic.

The play on words with the gold rush began in earnest around 2008 when a series of reports identified vast reserves of minerals and hydrocarbons across the Arctic region. Access to reserves, along with large fishing stocks, could continue as ice levels decline due to climate change.

This decrease in ice has also increased increasingly Opening sea routes in the Arctic, Northern Canadian mainland and Russia.

So much so that in the decade from 2013 to 2023, the total annual recorded distances sailed by ships in the Arctic Sea was More than double From 6.1 million to 12.9 million miles.

The long-term hope is that cargo ships will be able to travel from Asia to Europe and the East Coast of the United States, through Arctic waters above Canada and Russia.

But the question Alnis Bonismo is asking himself now is: Has he arrived too late?

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, much of the planned economic development in the Arctic region has stalled as relations between Russia and the West deteriorate.

“Russia had great plans in the Arctic,” says Morten Mjlender Larsen, director of Arctic operations and technology at Norwegian company DNV. His company sets rules and standards for the maritime sector.

“They have begun building regional rescue centers complete with ships and helicopters to facilitate shipping for gas, oil and coal projects in Siberia, as well as for shipping along the Northeast Passage (northern Russia).

“(But) since the invasion of Ukraine, international shipping traffic in the Northeast Passage has ground to a halt, with the exception of a few Chinese ships,” notes Mr. Mejlander Larsen.

He adds that Norway has also stopped oil and gas exploration in the area. “It has completely stopped,” he says.

“We do not expect to see any further developments in the Barents Sea north of Bear Island.” This small Norwegian island is located about 400 kilometers (250 miles) north of mainland Norway.

The scaling back of Norway's Arctic ambitions has pleased environmentalists who have consistently warned of the impact of hydrocarbon drilling on wildlife and the fragile environment in the Arctic.

Last month, Greenpeace welcomed the Norwegian government's decision Stopping the first round of licensing For deep-sea mining in Arctic waters between the Norwegian islands of Svalbard and Jan Mayen.

Commentators say that while poor relations with Russia are the main reason Norway is wary of pouring money into Arctic projects, its interest in the Arctic region has already passed.

In hindsight, the forecasts for Arctic shipping were “exaggerated,” says Helene Toft, director of international cooperation and climate at the Norwegian Shipowners Association.

She notes that despite the impact of climate change, the Arctic remains a difficult place to work. “Conditions in the Arctic can be very challenging, even when the absence of sea ice allows passage,” she says.

“Large portions of the road are far from emergency response capabilities, such as search and rescue and environmental cleanup resources.

“Increasing shipping in this region will require significant investments in vessels, emergency preparedness, infrastructure, and weather forecasting systems, for an unpredictable route with a short operating season. At present, we have no indication that our members view this as commercial.” “. “Interesting.”

“The belief is that thanks to global warming there will be summers there. This will never happen. If the temperature is minus 40 degrees Celsius and the temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius, it is still not warm,” Mejlander Larsen points out.

Moreover, Professor Arild Moe, from the Norwegian Research Group's Fridtjof Nansen Institute, says the entire Arctic cold snap was based on exaggerated assumptions. “The abundance was excessive,” says an expert on oil and gas exploration in the region.

“What the 2008 reports indicated were not actual reserves, but potential and highly uncertain resources, which would be risky, expensive, and difficult to locate and exploit.”

Regarding Trump's renewed interest in Greenland, an autonomous Danish region, the authorities in Greenland and Denmark were again quick to respond that they were… Not for sale.

Professor Moe says Trump's “crude and undiplomatic statement” shows that the US under Trump looks out for security and economic interests on the island, including its “rich mineral resources”.

The Danish government also responded by announcing a significant increase in the number of people Defense spending For Greenland.

Elsewhere in the Arctic, there is Trump is expected to be allowed Increased oil and gas exploration in Alaska, specifically in the resource-rich Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

This 19 million acres is the largest wildlife refuge in the United States, and in 2020, Trump allowed drilling in one section of it.

Meanwhile, Canada continues To build a deep water port In Grays Bay, on the northern coast of Nunavut, its northernmost territory. Grays Bay is located roughly in the middle of the so-called Northwest Passage, the Arctic sea route north of the Canadian mainland.

Back on the trawler Granit, Alnis Bonismo says that although he is paid well, fishing quotas continue to decline to try to maintain stocks in Norwegian Arctic waters.

However, it is philosophical. “After a few years at sea, I have become more afraid of the Arctic Ocean, but I have also come to respect and appreciate it in all its power and beauty.”