The problem has been percolating for a while.
It was underground. lies beneath the surface. It is not necessarily tangible.
Except for whom Follow Congress closely.
But the issue has come to a head since the House stumbled badly while trying to avoid a government shutdown last week.
The US Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on February 13, 2024. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
For intelligence:
Congress vacillated between a staggering 1,500-page spending bill. Then they defeated a narrow, 116-page bill — which President-elect Trump supported. Things got worse when the House gave just 174 votes to approve the Trump-backed bill, and 38 Republicans voted no. Circumstances became even more dire when the House actually voted to avoid a recess government shutdown – but passed the bill with more Democrats (196) than Republicans (170). Thirty-four GOP members voted no.
That was likely a long time ago House Speaker Mike JohnsonThe Los Angeles Republican may have trouble winning the House Speaker's gavel immediately when the new Congress convenes at noon ET on Jan. 3. Congressional experts knew that Johnson might be in trouble once the features of the slim majority in the House of Representatives came into focus. Weeks after the November elections. This could turn into a full-blown crisis for Johnson — and House Republicans — when the Speaker of the House vote begins shortly after 1 p.m. EST next Friday.
Johnson emerges bruised from government funding last week. Between four and ten Republicans could oppose Johnson in the House Speaker race.
It has long been a possibility that Mike Johnson would have trouble winning the Speaker's gavel when the new Congress convenes on January 3rd. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Here's the math:
The House of Representatives has 434 members with one vacancy. This is thanks to the previous one Representative Matt Gaetz,R.Fla. He resigned from his position for this Congress a few weeks ago. Although Gaetz won re-election in November, his resignation letter — read on the House floor — indicated that he does not plan to serve in the new Congress, which begins in January.
Here's the breakdown when Congress begins: 219 Republicans vs. 214 Democrats.
Trump's choice for national security adviser Rep. Michael WaltzRepublican of Florida, remains in the House of Representatives at the moment. So does Rep. Elise Stefanik, RN.Y. Trump appointed her to serve as US Ambassador to the United Nations. This awaits Senate confirmation – perhaps in late January or early February. Once Waltz and Stefanik resigned, the GOP majority dwindled to 217 to 214.
But the election of the Speaker of Parliament on January 3 poses a special challenge. This is the appropriate standard for Johnson – or anyone else: The Speaker of the House of Representatives must win by an absolute majority of all members who cast their votes for a person by name. In other words, the person with the most votes does not win. That's what happened repeatedly to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when he routinely outmaneuvered House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., to start this Congress in January 2023. But it took days for McCarthy to get across the border. . appropriate threshold.
House Speaker Mike Johnson emerges bruised from recent government funding Donnybrook. (Getty)
More on that in a moment.
So let's do Mike Johnson's math. If there were 219 Republicans and four voted for someone else – and all Democrats cast ballots for Jeffries, the tally would be 215-214. But there is no speaker. No one received an absolute majority of all members who cast their votes for someone by name. The magic number is 218 if all 434 members vote.
By rule, this paralyzes the House. The House of Representatives cannot do anything at all, unequivocally, until it elects a president. a period.
The House of Representatives cannot administer oaths to members. Technically, they are still elected representatives. Only after the House of Representatives chooses its Speaker does he or she in turn administer the oath to the members.
The House certainly cannot pass the legislation. He cannot form committees. He is frozen in parliamentary paralysis until he is elected president.
Now, I hope you sit down for the next part.
This also means that the House of Representatives cannot certify the Electoral College results. Trump made The 47th President of the United States on January 6.
The House of Representatives cannot do anything at all, unequivocally, until it elects a president. a period. (Valerie Blish/Photo Alliance via Getty Images)
Failure to elect a president forces the House of Representatives to vote again and again…
And above…and…and above…
Until it finally clicks with someone.
McCarthy's election led to the burning of 15 ballots over five days two years ago.
The House settled into a cryogenic freeze in Congress for three weeks after members ousted McCarthy in October 2023. It burned two of the speaker's nominees — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. Tom Emmer, Republican from Minnesota. . —And one candidate on the ground: Rep. Jim Jordan, Republican of Ohio.
So you see the problem.
Consider for a moment that before last year, the House had never held a second ballot for a speaker since Speaker Frederick Gillette, Republican of Massachusetts, in 1923.
It took 63 votes before the House finally settled on Speaker Howell Cobb, Democrat of Georgia, in 1849.
But that's nothing. The longest election for Speaker of the House lasted two months before the House elected Speaker Nathaniel Banks, Republican of Massachusetts, in 1856 — on the 133rd ballot.
Therefore, anything that might cause this date to collide with January 6 – the legal day for the certification of the election results and which has now become one of the most shameful days in American history – is extremely dangerous.
Without a speaker, the House of Representatives cannot certify the Electoral College results, making Trump the forty-seventh president of the United States on January 6. (AP/J. Scott Applewhite)
To be clear: There is no dispute that Trump won the election. There is no expectation of a repeat of the Capitol riots of four years ago. But not ratifying the Electoral College on the day it was supposed to be completed – especially after the experience of 2021 – is playing with fire. Such a scenario would once again reveal another unprecedented weakness in the fragile American political system.
The House and Senate are supposed to meet on January 6 in a joint session of Congress to tabulate and certify the electoral votes. Any disagreements over a state's tally of electoral votes force the House and Senate to discuss and vote on those results separately. The election is not final until the joint session concludes and the Vice President – in this case Kamala Harris – as President of the Senate, is declared the winner.
Congress is not required to certify the Electoral College on the calendar day of January 6. There is actually some leeway to wrap things up. In 2021, the Electoral College was not certified until approximately 3:52 a.m. on January 7. It only becomes a big problem if this continues until noon on January 20th. This is when the Constitution stipulates that the elected president assumes his duties. Sworn oath.
What will happen if the Electoral College is not dissolved by January 20? Well, President Biden is done. He's gone. Same with Harris. Next in the line of presidential succession is the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Well, there's no speaker. So who becomes president?
The House and Senate are supposed to meet on January 6 in a joint session of Congress to tabulate and certify the electoral votes. (Getty Images)
Well, at this moment there is a president pro tempore of the Senate, who is the most senior member of the majority party. He is fourth in line for the presidency. At the moment, the interim president is Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash. But Republicans declared control of the council in early January. And unlike the House of Representatives, if it is in an awkward position because of the loudspeaker, The Senate is working. That means 91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, will become president pro tempore of the Senate. Grassley has served in the Senate since 1981.
If the House of Representatives is still wasting time trying to elect a speaker on January 20, Grassley will likely become “acting speaker.”
I write “likely” because this enters into dangerous and unconstitutional territory. These are unprecedented scenarios. Strange lands never visited in the American political experience.
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It all depends on Mike Johnson – or someone else, frankly – finishing the House Speaker's vote by sending him on January 3. Any period of interregnum, like two previous presidential elections, begins to establish difficult historical precedents.
But frankly, it is not clear whether the House of Representatives can avoid such unfortunate situations.
It's about mathematics. Once again, the balance of that parliamentary equation is fragile at best.
