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Dealmakers are betting that the recovery in mega mergers will accelerate under a Donald Trump presidency, after a rebound in larger deals helped push the value of acquisitions beyond $3 trillion this year.
The value of global mergers and acquisitions has risen 11 percent so far this year, an improvement over the doldrums of 2022 when deal making was It did not reach the $3 trillion threshold For the first time in a decade.
The value of so-called mega deals, worth more than $5 billion, has risen 19 percent year-to-date, boosting the numbers, even as the total number of deals fell by a fifth to a nine-year low, according to data from the institute. Stanley. London Stock Exchange Group.
“Especially for large mergers and acquisitions, it's mostly about the CEO and the board
“There is a lot of optimism among CEOs of their businesses with the new management,” said Tony Kim, co-head of investment banking at Boutique Centerview Partners.
“I don't think you can make a call about 2025 (being) a tumultuous year
“But there is certainly a lot of evidence that points to that,” he added.
Dealmakers hope Trump's return to the White House will mean less regulatory scrutiny of large mergers, after the skeptical stance taken by watchdogs during Joe Biden's administration.
“There is an expectation that the regulatory framework will be less burdensome,” said Anu Iyengar, global head of advisory, mergers and acquisitions at JPMorgan Chase.
The biggest deal floated this year was the proposed $47 billion purchase of Japan's Seven & i, the company that owns 7-Eleven, by Canadian retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard. No deal It has been reachedThe Japanese group also received a competing purchase offer from members of the founding family.
Other major deals include US lender Capital One's agreement to buy rival Discover Financial for $35.3 billion, and consumer giant Mars' deal to acquire Pringles and Pop-Tarts maker Kelanova for $35.9 billion.
While activity slowed in the last three months of the year compared to the third quarter, A A flurry of deals After the US elections in November.
“Rumors about the demise of the M&A market have been somewhat exaggerated,” said Stefan Feldjuis, global co-head of mergers and acquisitions at Goldman Sachs. “There has been a marked increase in activity since the election.”
The United States accounted for 46 percent of global activity this year, although deal making there rose only 8 percent. Mergers and acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific region fell by 2 percent, although activity in Japan jumped 45 percent to a 19-year high.
The UK has once again proven to be a popular place to buy, given low valuations for London-listed stocks, with deals involving a UK target company rising by 46 per cent. Europe has rebounded, with mergers and acquisitions in the region up 20 percent compared to the previous year.
Some of the biggest European deals this year were the result of corporate simplification, such as the sale of Deutsche Bahn Schenker's logistics unit to Danish group DSV for €14.3 billion, and private equity group Clayton Dubilier & Rice's purchase of a controlling stake in Sanofi's consumer healthcare business. The business is valued at 16 billion euros.
Jan Weber, who leads Morgan Stanley's mergers and acquisitions across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said he expects dealmakers in the region to continue pursuing long-discussed deals in the new year. “(These ideas) have been on the shelf for some time, and now they are being dusted off again,” he said.
Private equity-backed acquisitions rose 25 percent to $670 billion. But the industry faces a backlog of billions of dollars in investments.
Rafael Bejarano, co-head of global investment banking at Jefferies, said rising interest rates have impacted deal sizes, and there remains a “value gap between buyer and seller expectations.”
Global investment banking fees have risen 12 percent so far this year to $111 billion, above the 10-year average. Goldman Sachs maintains its billing as the top global financial advisor for M&A deals. Morgan Stanley overtook JPMorgan to take second place.
