25 December 2024

A 1,547-page stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown is effectively dead. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) Nearly scrapped the plan after President-elect Trump, Vice President-elect Vance and Elon Musk torched the package to avoid a government shutdown this weekend and fund the government through March 14.

king Republicans in the House of Representatives Had the votes been made to pass the bill — without relying too heavily on Democrats — Republicans may have been able to pass the bill late Wednesday afternoon before Ms. Trump and Vance. But there has been a lot of public pressure, which Musk has raised on X and elsewhere.

House GOP leaders scramble for Plan B after Trump, and Musk leads conservative fury against spending bill

The temporary spending package proved unpopular due to its size, and the bill was decorated with various legislative decorations such as a Christmas tree. The Conservatives had expected Johnson to handle the spending plan differently this year during the holidays. But it backfired. Badly.

It is worth noting that Mr. Trump did not intervene until the eleventh hour. He also called for increasing the debt ceiling. This is something that confronted the president-elect in the first quarter of the year and threatened to derail any legislative agenda or potentially spook the markets.

Johnson's decision to veer off course — despite enthusiastically promoting the bill on Fox this morning — highlights several things.

President-elect Donald Trump

President-elect Donald Trump reacts during his meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales at the United Kingdom Embassy on December 7, 2024 in Paris, France. (Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images)

This is a sign of things to come once and for all President-elect Trump in office. This could pose problems for Johnson because he may be at the whim of the new president's decisions?

Why did Johnson withdraw the bill?

He was very unpopular among his rank and file. But the matter took a turn for the worse once Musk and the president-elect themselves were injected.

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In many respects, Johnson's decision to withdraw the bill had to do with January 3rd. This is the day the Speaker of the House of Representatives votes. With 434 members to start New CongressJohnson needs 218 votes. Otherwise, he lacks a majority and cannot become president. The House must vote repeatedly — as it did in January 2023 — before electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) five days later in what was the longest House Speaker race since the 1850s.

Johnson tried to save himself on the House Speaker's vote by adding emergency farm spending to the bill. But Johnson is now trying to save himself by introducing a new bill.

House Speaker Mike Johnson

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) listens during a press conference following the Republican Conference meeting at the U.S. Capitol on January 17, 2024, in Washington, DC. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

The irony is that Johnson did not want to create drama before Christmas with a spending package. But drama is exactly what he got in what is quickly becoming the worst congressional recess showdown since the fiscal cliff in 2012 or the threat of a government shutdown in 2014.

So here's the $64,000 question: What play will Johnson make next?

Does he make a clean business record for government funding with nothing attached? Is it a bill that restores existing funding along with disaster aid? Will they suspend the debt ceiling as President-elect Trump requested?

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Then the biggest question of all: Can anything pass at all? Especially without sounds From the Democrats?

Johnson has a segment of Conservatives who will not vote for any CR at all. Many of them will not vote to increase the debt ceiling either.

Even if there is a new bill, will the Conservatives insist on waiting three days to think about the bill? This leads to a government shutdown there.

US Capitol

The U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on Monday, November 11, 2024. (Stephanie Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Deadline is 11:59:59 PM ET on Friday.

So this will require someone pulling a rabbit out of the hat.

President-elect Trump's maneuver today is reminiscent of a similar move he made in December 2019, which sparked the longest government shutdown in history.

Then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), then-Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) and others thought they had a deal to fund the government and avoid a Christmas-time shutdown.

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The Senate voted in favor of the bill. Senators even sat in the back of the chamber and sang Christmas carols as they voted.

Then Mr. Trump backed down at the last minute. House Republicans followed suit. The government has been suspended for more than a month.

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