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Your guide to what the 2024 US elections mean for Washington and the world
The writer directs the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution
European capitals are considering Donald Trump's return on January 20th with some concern. The US president-elect is known to have less than warm and fuzzy feelings towards NATO and the European Union.
All European capitals? not quite. Consider Oslo, where senior Norwegian politicians like to comment reassuringly that “our bilateral relations with the United States will always remain secure.” And they have some excellent points in their favor.
Norway, one of the founding members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its allies Eyes and ears In the Arctic, it guards the North Atlantic exit route for the Russian submarine fleet based on the Kola Peninsula. It plans to exceed NATO's defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP by 2025, and its long-term defense plan will double the defense budget by 2036; The “Civil Defense Handbook” tells citizens how to stock up for emergencies, including war. He's my boss supporter Ukraine. 52 percent of Norway's $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund is invested in North America. It even contains trade deficit With America. These are all things the president-elect loves.
Ask in Oslo, however, and concerns quickly arise. Trump's enthusiasm for tariffs is a particular source of concern Norway Not a member of the European Union. “If the US imposes tariffs on Europe, and the EU responds with counter-tariffs, we will be hit with a double whammy,” sighs one official.
Concerns about security are also widespread. Russia and China were competing in the Arctic. They are particularly keen on the Svalbard archipelago, a Norwegian territory, but under a century-old international treaty that allows other countries to exploit the resources and conduct research. Was trump l Reducing the American role In NATO, Oslo will feel more vulnerable to pressure from Moscow and Beijing. What if, in exchange for a ceasefire in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded US support for adjustments to the European security system – say, expanding Russia and China’s foothold in Svalbard?
Could all this make the European Union appear in a new light? Norway said no to joining in two referendums in 1972 and 1994, and instead joined the European Economic Area. A poll conducted in November still says only 34.9 percent of Norwegians say their country should join, compared to 46.7 percent opposed. However, this represents a decline of more than 70 percent compared to 2016.
Policymakers in Oslo point to the European Union's competitive difficulties and the rise of the far right, as well as internal obstacles they face such as fisheries or agricultural interests. But they were also watching the speed and determination with which Finland and Sweden were integrated into NATO. One points out that Helsinki is about to get its own NATO land command in 2025, and Stockholm has secured a director-general position in the alliance's international civil service, “while we have neither.”
Indeed, Norway's global commitment to diplomacy, international institutions, and the law, its military seriousness, its generous development aid, and its status as one of Europe's major energy suppliers in the wake of the near-total crisis. Secession from RussiaFinally, its vast wealth fund would make it a prime candidate for rapid EU membership.
So the dilemma facing interconnected and exposed Norway is – like the newspaper Aftenposten To put it memorably after Trump's re-election – will it become “the 51st state in the United States, like Puerto Rico” or the 28th member state of the European Union? The appeal of the last option is that Norway will move in on the top floor. At a time when Paris and Berlin are barely able to lead, they can not only change the balance of power in Europe, but start anew.
This is because Norway is not the only European country that is quietly considering its options. Pro-EU parties won Iceland's parliamentary elections in November. Switzerland concludes negotiations on a treaty package with the European Union, and its sanctities Neutrality It is the subject of a vibrant national debate. Ireland is not a member of NATO, but it is also working to strengthen its relations with the alliance. The discussion in Sweden about swapping the weak krona for the euro remained inconclusive; But the war in Europe may make joining the eurozone seem like additional political insurance.
A skeptical Norwegian banker asserts that it will take a political “meteorite” to change his country's position on joining the European Union. Given the experience of the first Trump administration, this is unthinkable. But it would be ironic if the 47th president became the great unifier of Europe.
