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One of the most famous Sherlock Holmes stories revolves around what Sherlock observed: the strange incident of a dog in the night. When the Scotland Yard inspector said that the dog had done nothing in the night, Sherlock explained that that was what was curious. Understanding why the dog didn't bark was essential to solving the mystery.
In our case, many political professionals have noted, à la Scotland Yard, that in the 2024 election, Abortion “did nothing.” That's a very different outcome than Democrats expected, based on Dobbs's post-Dobbs 0-12 loss record (with results in Virginia in 2023 counted as a tie), the abortion-related ballot initiatives and the special election, and the crush. Red waves expected
Why was 2024 different? Has abortion disappeared from attention after it was overshadowed by the economy and illegal immigration? Or is there something preventing that dog from barking? The answer is important in the upcoming elections.
In early 2024, my company, Suasion Insights, began looking nationally and deep into Pennsylvania, tasked with seeing if there was any way pro-life Republicans could at least neutralize the abortion issue without abandoning their principles.
Despite strong support for abortion on the left, the issue did not determine the election. Archive: Abortion rights demonstrator holds a sign demanding to “keep abortion legal” (AP)
We shared our findings with federal GOP campaigns and organizations, starting with five key insights into what was motivating and motivating the voters they were losing over this issue.
First, for 48% nationally, rough agreement with the candidate—that is, lack of fear—on abortion is a prerequisite for subsequent consideration of other issues.
Second, 50% believe the Republican Party cannot be trusted on abortion, and two-thirds of Americans believe Republicans lack empathy.
Third, the term “pro-life” has a toxic brand/perception outside of the pro-life community, implying opposition to all abortions—and perhaps also opposition to exceptions (which are very important to voters), including perhaps women’s lives. the mom. (The left understands this, which is why bills that restrict abortion only in the late stages of pregnancy are described as bans, raising concerns that a blanket ban is the real intent.)
Furthermore, the label “pro-life” implies support only for the fetus, not the woman (a problem when only 8% nationally believe the child is more important throughout pregnancy) and hypocritical support for “life” in light of possible simultaneous approval of the death penalty , support guns, and oppose funding for pre- and post-natal care, testing for rare diseases, and social support through people's lives.
Fourth, and by contrast, “pro-choice” has a centrist brand perception, and is seen as inclusive, including anything from a six-week limit to unrestricted abortion. Moreover, pro-choice voters assume that Democrats naturally don't want abortions, and that abortions late in pregnancy are not only few but medically necessary, which makes GOP rhetoric lack credibility.
Fifth, voters of all groups are open to supporting candidates who support policies that are less restrictive than their personal preferences, but not more restrictive. The record of the post-Dobbs abortion ballot initiative illustrates this point: No statewide ballot initiative has passed that would have made that state's law more restrictive.
But our research also showed that a winning message would stop the politicization of abortion — a trap that Democrats fell into, for example, in their over-the-top ad about a woman on Earth dying while a GOP senator blocks her access to abortion treatment.
Pro-lifers march in Washington, D.C., United States, on January 20, 2023. (Photo by Celal Gunes/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) (Celal Gunes/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
We have shown that there are better ways for Republicans to express their compassion and concerns for women and their needs in this difficult time, both individually and necessarily as a party.
We were pleased to see the Republican Party change the language of its platform as the old language could have been used as a club against every GOP nominee. President-elect Donald Trump He talks about exceptions whenever he talks about abortion. He explicitly excluded federal law. Most of the GOP candidates have been very clear that they, like the top of the ticket, oppose any national ban.
You could hear the air coming out of the abortion issue for the left, which accelerated after Vice President-elect J.D. Vance's debate with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, which was a great lesson in reassuring women that this is not a game of their own making. Every state looks like Alabama.
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Vance never shied away from the issue. He never used the term “pro-life.” He began with compassion, not politics, as he told the story of a woman he loved who had an abortion that she felt saved her life. He acknowledged that there are different opinions on this issue. He spoke of the need for Republicans to rebuild trust.
He used a pro-woman argument: We need to give women control (affordability, family planning/contraception/fertility treatments) to solve the real problem (unwanted pregnancies), not just focus on the symptoms of the problem (abortion). ). He did not talk about adoption and foster care, which are seen as more anti-abortion than pro-women, but he did regain freedom and spoke about child care and fertility, two big issues for women.
Even when he attacked, he did not talk in the usual activist way about “killing babies” or use other counterproductive emotional language, but he stuck to the facts and the idea that the left was going “too far” — which is how most people talk. He was clear in his opposition to the ban and never used the word “ban” outside the context of partial-birth abortion.
He reminded us that we are a diverse country and stressed the importance of letting voters decide. By recognizing that different states will have different policies, Vance has shown that he listens to women and voters and recognizes the need to restore trust, hearts and minds.
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We have shown that there are better ways for Republicans to express their compassion and concerns for women and their needs in this difficult time, both individually and necessarily as a party.
Changing the way the Republican Party viewed the issue of abortion, reducing fear, bringing sympathy and reassurance, was the dog that did not bark, and made it possible for voters to focus on other issues.
As we look to the next election, the question is: Will the pro-life movement and GOP politicians learn how to neutralize this issue, so they don't lose any more ground? Would they really choose to win (because there is a way they could get nearly 70% support for their less extreme positions)? Or will they return to barking to the satisfaction of their more hardline supporters while causing collateral losses elsewhere? Only time will tell.
