Predicting the markets is largely meaningless

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, the international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors informed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Nasdaq outperforms
US stocks He finished Friday mixed. the Dow Jones Industrial Average It lost 0.2% for the seventh consecutive day of losses. shares Broadcom It jumped 24%, triggering its launch at Trillion dollar valuation club. Monday, Asia Pacific markets It fell across the boardreversing previous gains. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index It fell about 0.9%, leading to losses in the region.

The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates
The Bank of Japan is likely to do so Leaving benchmark interest rates unchanged At its Wednesday-Thursday meeting, a CNBC poll found. Of the 24 economists surveyed, 13 of them believe the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates in December. The Bank of Japan last raised interest rates in July.

Chinese consumers are slowing down their purchases
China Retail sales in November It grew 3% from last year, according to National Bureau of Statistics Data released on Monday. This figure is contrary to the expected increase of 4.6% in a Reuters poll, and is significantly lower than the growth recorded in October of 4.8%. However, October sales were supported by China sales Singles' Day Shopping Festival.

Impeachment of the President of South Korea
The South Korean president was Yeon Suk-yeol He was isolated on Saturday After 204 lawmakers in the National Assembly voted in favor of the proposal. Prime Minister Han Dak Su will do so Serves as acting president. On Sunday, Hahn spoke with US President Joe Biden, and the country's Finance Ministry said it would continue Market monitoring.

(PRO) Eyes on prices and rates
Interest rates and inflation are In focus this week. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting ends on Wednesday, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation because it reflects how consumers actually spend their money, will be released on Friday.

the Standard & Poor's 500 It may have fallen 0.6% last week, snapping a three-week winning streak. But it is still up about 27% this year, breaking the 6,000 level for the first time in its upward journey.

This exceeds the expectations made by senior financial strategists at the end of 2023. Notes CNBC's Piya Singh. JP Morgan For example, chief US equity strategist Dubravko Lakos Bogas expects the broad-based index to close the year at just 4,200 points. And even the most optimistic forecast — a 5,200-point target from John Stoltzfus, the bank's chief investment strategist. Oppenheimer – Didn't catch the stock's exuberant rally this year.

For this reason, although market strategists expect the S&P 500 to end 2025 at 6,630, according to the average forecast from… CNBC Strategic Market SurveyInvestors should take it with a pinch of salt. There is certainly positive sentiment flowing among investors, thanks to Trump's high regard for the stock market as a barometer of his presidential term, his steady easing of monetary policy, and the prospect of a corporate tax cut, among other factors.

But in the markets – as in life – the best laid plans of mice and men often fail.

Inflation could return in an unwelcome way – like measles and perhaps polio in the US – because of the tariffs promised by Trump and the tit-for-tat trade wars that might ensue. Inflation already “seems a bit stuck,” he said. Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Robert Kaplan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

However, despite my doubts about the forecast, I love it Bank of America Savita Subramanian has proven to be a visionary market forecaster. Imagine ending 2025 with the S&P reaching Subramanian's target of 6,666.

CNBC's Sarah Min, Pia Singh, Sean Conlon and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.