BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese industrial production accelerated slightly in November, while retail sales were disappointing, keeping pressure on Beijing to ramp up stimulus for a fragile economy as it braces for more U.S. trade tariffs under a second Trump administration.
The mixed data set highlights the challenges facing Chinese leaders heading into 2025 when trade relations with the United States may deteriorate while domestic consumption also remains weak.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday that China's industrial output grew by 5.4% in November on an annual basis, up from a pace of 5.3% in October, exceeding expectations for a 5.3% increase in a Reuters poll.
However, retail sales, a measure of consumption, rose 3.3% last month, down from a 4.8% rise in October. Analysts had expected an expansion of 4.6%.
The weaker retail numbers come despite a boost from major online shopping promotions and government-backed trade-in programs that have boosted sales in sectors including automobiles.
Investment in fixed assets increased by 3.3% in the period from January to November compared to the same period of the previous year, compared to an expected rise of 3.4%. It grew by 3.4% from January to October.
At last week's Central Economic Work Conference, a closely watched meeting to set the agenda, China's top leaders pledged to raise the budget deficit, issue more debt, and make boosting consumption a top priority.
The comments reiterated commitments made at a meeting of senior Communist Party officials, the Politburo, earlier this month, which backed an “appropriately loose” monetary policy in the first softening of its stance in 14 years.
Reuters also reported that government advisers recommended that Beijing maintain its growth target of around 5.0% for next year, a target that would require strong measures to mitigate the impact of expected US tariffs.
Trump, who is set to begin his second term as US president in January, has threatened to impose tariffs of more than 60% on imports of Chinese goods.
Reuters reported last week that China was considering allowing the yuan to fall in response to punitive trade measures, but a statement from state media Xinhua after the Committee for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons reiterated its commitment to maintaining the yuan's fundamental stability.
A recent Reuters poll expected China to grow by 4.5% next year, with new US tariffs potentially reducing growth by up to one point.
