India's population is already 1.45 billion. Why does he want more children?

Last year, India surpassed China to become the world's most populous country, according to United Nations estimates.

With nearly 1.45 billion people now, you would think the country would be quiet about having more children. But guess what? The chatter suddenly rose.

Recently, leaders of two southern states – Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – called for increasing the number of children.

Andhra Pradesh is considering incentives, citing low fertility rates and an aging population. The state too Abolished the “two-child policy” For local body elections, and Reports Neighboring Telangana may soon do the same, he says. Our neighbor Tamil Nadu also manufactures Sounds similar and more exaggerated.

India's fertility rate has fallen dramatically – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current rate of two.

Fertility rates fell below the replacement level of two births per woman in 17 out of 29 states and territories. (The replacement level is the level at which new births are sufficient to keep the population stable.)

The five states located in southern India are leading the process of demographic transformation in India, as they have achieved the replacement level in fertility rates before other states by a large margin. Kerala reached this milestone in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993, and the rest by the mid-2000s.

Today, the total fertility rates in the five southern states are below 1.6, in Karnataka it is 1.6 and in Tamil Nadu it is 1.4. In other words, fertility rates in these countries are comparable to or lower than many European countries.

But these states fear that India's demographic shift, with varying population shares across states, will significantly impact electoral representation, the judicious allocation of parliamentary seats and federal revenues at the state level.

“They fear being punished for their effective population control policies, despite being better economic performers and contributing significantly to federal revenues,” Srinivas Jolly, professor of demography at the International Institute of Population Sciences, told the BBC.

Southern states are also grappling with another major concern as India prepares for its debut Demarcation of electoral seats in 2026 – the first since 1976.

This practice will redraw electoral boundaries to reflect population shifts, and will likely reduce parliamentary seats for economically prosperous southern states. Since federal revenues are allocated based on a state's population, many fear this will deepen their fiscal struggles and limit policymaking freedom.

KS demographers James and Shubra Kriti project Populous northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will win more seats from the demarcation, while southern states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh may face losses, further shifting political representation.

Many, including the Prime Minister Narendra ModiThey indicated that changes to financial shares and the allocation of parliamentary seats would not be rushed.

“As a demographer, I don't think states should care too much about these issues,” says Mr. Jolly. “They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between the federal and state governments.” “My concern lies elsewhere.”

The main challenge, according to demographers, is India's rapid aging due to low fertility rates. While it took countries like France and Sweden 120 and 80 years respectively to double the proportion of elderly people from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, says Joly.

This accelerated aging is linked to India's unique success in declining fertility. In most countries, improved standards of living, education and urbanization naturally lead to lower fertility rates and improved child survival rates.

But in India, fertility rates have declined rapidly despite modest social and economic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programs that have encouraged small families through targets, incentives and disincentives.

Unintended consequence? Take Andhra Pradesh, for example. Its fertility rate is 1.5, on par with Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, Joly says. with Mounting debt With limited resources, can countries like these support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?

Consider this. More than 40% of elderly Indians (over 60 years) belong to the poorest wealth quintile – the bottom 20% of the population in terms of wealth distribution, according to the latest report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Aging in India report.

In other words, Jolly says, “India is getting old before it gets rich.”

A lower number of children also means a higher elderly dependency ratio, leaving fewer caregivers for a growing population of older people. Demographers warn that health care, community centers and nursing homes in India are not prepared for this shift.

Urbanization, migration, and changing labor markets are further eroding traditional family support – India's strength – leaving more elderly people behind.

While migration from more populous to less populated countries can serve to reduce the working age gap, it also raises anti-immigration concerns. “Strong investments in prevention, palliative care and social infrastructure for elderly care are urgently needed,” says Mr Joly.

As if the concerns of the southern states were not enough, earlier this month, the head of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the ideological backbone of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, urged couples to have at least three children to secure their lives. India's future. “According to demographics, when growth drops below 2.1, the society perishes on its own. No one destroys it,” Mohan Bhagwat reportedly said at a recent conference. interview.

While Mr. Bhagwat's fears may have some basis, they are not entirely accurate, demographers say. Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics, told the BBC that after a decade or two, continued “very low fertility levels will lead to rapid population decline.”

A fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman results in a slow, manageable decline in the population. But a rate of 1.6 or less could lead to “rapid and uncontrollable population decline.”

“Fewer people will enter reproductive age – prime working age – and that will be socially, politically and economically disastrous,” Dyson says. “This is a demographic process and it is very difficult to reverse.”

This is already happening in some countries.

In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced that the country's birth rate was at a record low “National emergency” He announced plans to create a dedicated government ministry. Greece The fertility rate fell to 1.3That's half what it was in 1950, prompting warnings from Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis about an “existential” population threat.

But demographers say urging people to have more children is futile. “Given societal shifts, including significant declines in gender disparities as women's lives become increasingly similar to men's, this trend is unlikely to reverse,” Dyson says.

For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which are grappling with a declining labor force, the key question is: Who will step in to bridge this gap? Developed countries, unable to reverse declining fertility rates, are focusing on healthy and active aging – extending working lives by five to seven years and boosting productivity among older populations.

Demographers say India will need to meaningfully extend the retirement age, and policies must prioritize increasing healthy years through better health checks and strengthening Social Security to ensure an active and productive older population — a possibility “silver profits”.

India must also make better use of its demographic dividend – the economic growth that occurs when a country has a large working-age population. Joly believes there is a chance until 2047 to boost the economy, create jobs for the working-age population, and allocate resources to the elderly. “We only make 15-20% of the profits, and we can do much better,” he says.