Does Argentina influence the United States?

As Argentine maverick liberal President Javier Miley celebrates his first year in office, his efforts to revive the economy are still a work in progress – but his policies are proving influential in the United States.

Miley came to power on a mission to cut government spending in a country that had been living beyond its means for years.

Despite his strict austerity measures – The continuous rise in poverty ratesHe still has the support of just over half the population, he says A survey conducted earlier this month By CB Consultora.

This level of popularity is similar to Donald Trump's level of popularity at the moment. Nearly half of American voters supported the president-elect in last month's presidential election, and Trump praised Miley as the man who can “make Argentina great again.”

Meanwhile, tech billionaire Elon Musk, who looks set to play a key role in the next US administration, praised Miley, saying Argentina is “seeing tremendous improvement” under his leadership.

But what do Trump and Musk see in Miley? Are they as ideologically close as is often assumed?

Miley's biggest achievement to date, and the one that Argentines appreciate most, is his success in bringing down inflation. But he has caused a stir in the United States with his campaign for deregulation, which has been exploited by small-government activists eager to reduce the size of the state in Washington, similar to what is happening in Buenos Aires.

In the initial package of measures taken by Miley, he reduced government fuel subsidies and halved the number of government ministries.

He is now trying to force through plans for a mass sale of state-run companies, including the country's leading airline Aerolineas Argentinas, which had already been privatized once before it could be privatized. It was re-nationalized in 2008.

All of this was music to the ears of Elon Musk, who has been tasked with similar cost-cutting initiatives under the banner of the so-called Government Efficiency Department – A misleading name, as it is an advisory body and not an official government department.

Musk and his partner in the ministry, fellow billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, have said they want to reduce federal regulations, oversee mass layoffs, and close some agencies entirely.

Musk has talked about cutting federal government spending by $2 trillion (£1.6 trillion) – about a third of annual spending. According to him, Miley is doing a “fantastic job” in Argentina by “deleting entire departments” – and he would like to follow suit in the United States, with Trump's blessing.

But long-time Latin American observers are skeptical.

“Miley's inspiration for reducing the size of government doesn't make any sense,” says Monica De Paul, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

“The situation in Argentina is very specific to Argentina, because it was about eliminating decades of mismanagement of public resources. This has nothing to do with the United States.”

Ms. de Paul says Argentina had no choice but to take action, because government spending was so excessive that the country “explodes into crisis every few years.”

“This is suitable for Argentina, but not for anyone else.”

Miley's decision to use a chainsaw during the election campaign as evidence of his approach to government was a “masterpiece” of political marketing that “captured the imagination of small-state activists around the world,” says Marcelo J. Garcia, Americas director in Buenos Aires at global consulting firm Horizon Engage. .

But he believes that although Musk's own business interests would benefit from less government regulation, that is not necessarily what Trump wants.

“I'm not sure Trump's platform is compatible with Miley's small government,” he told the BBC.

He notes that Trump's policies “require big government in some areas,” such as building border walls and mass deportations of illegal immigrants. “You can't do this kind of huge program with small government.”

In Miley's view, infrastructure projects are best left to the private sector, and have nothing to do with the government.

Miley and Trump are on the same side in the global culture wars, denouncing what they see as the “woke agenda.” But economically, their ideas are completely different.

Miley is a supporter of free trade, and Argentina is a member of the Mercosur trade bloc in South America, which also includes Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

While he supports the latter Mercosur Free trade agreement with the European Union, He does not like the way the organization refuses to allow its member states to make their own deals. As a result, he says, Mercosur “ended up becoming a prison.”

He added, “If the bloc is not a dynamic engine that facilitates trade, enhances investment, and improves the quality of life for all citizens in our region, then what is the point of it?” He said at the Mercosur summit in Uruguay earlier this month where the agreement with the European Union was signed.

Trump also has disagreements with his regional trade alliance, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but for reasons that conflict with Miley's.

Trump wants to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a deal he himself crafted during his first term in office, as a way to protect U.S. manufacturing and protect U.S. jobs.

He even found a way to use the alliance as a weapon by threatening sanctions Empty 25% tariff On goods from both Canada and Mexico unless they secure their common border with the United States.

Monica De Paul suspects that Trump shares Musk's enthusiasm for a smaller country: “You can't be a populist nationalist and care about the size of government. So Trump doesn't care. He put Elon in there because it's fun to have someone.” “There it is making noise.”

The economic discussion is scheduled to continue in both the United States and Argentina. But in the end, if half your population supports you, it means the other half doesn't support you. Trump will have to deal with that after his inauguration on January 20, but Miley already has to deal with his polarized population.

As Marcelo J. Garcia sees it, Miley is a “divisive leader” who has made no attempt to win over his opponents.

“The other half of the country that didn't support him will never support him, no matter how successful the economy is, because he doesn't want them to support him,” he says.

He adds: “Leaders tend to be loved by everyone. But that is not the case with Miley.”

He sees this as a real weakness: “You can't build a long-term, sustainable political project if you don't move toward the people who didn't vote for you.”

The next big test of public opinion for Milley will come in October 2025, when Argentina holds midterm elections. This could be crucial in deciding whether his government's small revolution will determine the country's future – or whether this revolution has lost momentum, as has been the case with previous attempts at reform.