François Bayrou is respected, but will he succeed?

President Macron has turned to his fellow centrist, and one of France's most experienced politicians, to pull the country out of its government crisis.

But if François Bayrou commands so much respect across the political spectrum, it is hard to see how he can avoid the same traps that befell his predecessor, Michel Barnier.

However, the Prime Minister, who is appointed by the President in accordance with the Constitution, can only exercise his duties with the support of Parliament.

With the National Assembly paralyzed by the same impasse that has plagued the three blocs since July – with no change likely before July 2025 – it would be reckless to expect Bayrou to have any degree of success.

Since Barnier's fall a week ago – after a vote of no confidence supported by the populist left and right – Macron has consulted with a range of leaders in the hope of forming a new informal coalition to run the country.

Because Barnier was a man of the traditional right, Macron's first instinct was to turn to the traditional left – and efforts initially focused on wresting the Socialist Party from its alliance with the hard-left France Unencumbered party.

But since the Socialist Party's condition was to adopt left-wing policies that Macron was not prepared to sanction, he had to limit his search to his inner circle.

Bayrou has been a close ally of the president since before Macron's stunning first election victory in 2017. Indeed, Bayrou's decision to step aside as a candidate that year — and rally behind the younger man — created a vital dynamic behind Macron's campaign.

Bayrou, a well-known figure on the political scene for more than 40 years, has been running the “Modem” party since its founding in 2007, which now includes 36 deputies. Before that, he was the leader of other moderate incarnations.

It had its beginnings in the Christian Democratic tradition of post-war politics, which generally supported, but kept its distance from, the larger Gaullist element on the French right, which Jacques Chirac had led since the late 1970s.

Bayrou, who was a classical languages ​​teacher in his twenties, served as education minister from 1993 to 1997. But that was his last meaningful experience in government.

For a very brief period in 2017, he was justice minister under Macron, but resigned after being indicted in the party financing scandal.

He was eventually acquitted of any wrongdoing, but many of his colleagues were convicted. Prosecutors have appealed against his acquittal, meaning he could still be brought back to court.

A devout Catholic with six children, Bayrou's political base is in the city of Pau in the Pyrenees, where he has served as mayor since 2014. He speaks the local Bernese language and is a strong believer in decentralization.

Bayrou has run for president three times, as a centrist standard bearer. He was the closest to winning the 2007 elections when he came in third place with 19% of the votes. He then angered future winner Nicolas Sarkozy by coming out in support of Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal.

When the only possible means for the survival of a minority government is to build bridges between the left and the right, Bayrou has the advantage of establishing acceptable relations with both sides.

His support for Royal and then François Hollande in 2012 established a certain amount of trust among the Socialists. But his views on debt – and the need to reduce it – help him to the right.

Interestingly, his relationship with Marine Le Pen of the populist right is also respectful. In the past, he helped her raise sponsorship to run for president, arguing that it would be an affront to democracy if the leader of the most popular party could not run.

Similar sentiments fueled support for Le Pen, when the prosecutor in her party finance trial (a case similar to his) recently demanded that she be declared unfit to hold public office.

This may mean that Bayrou is able to avoid automatic blame by the populist right.

But Le Pen's National Rally party also warned that if the new prime minister were “Barnier in a different light,” it would not hesitate to bring him down.

According to veteran French political commentator Alain Duhamel, Bayrou is an independent-minded and highly experienced person who will not hesitate – despite his alliance with Macron – to exercise his authority at the Hotel Matignon, his official residence.

“He will not be disciplined easily,” Duhamel said. “It will tilt politics more towards the left.”

The French government crisis – the most serious of the Fifth Republic – led to a major shift in power, away from the Elysee and towards the Prime Minister and Parliament.

Constitutional expert Christophe Boutin said: “The last time we faced a situation like this was during the era of the Fourth Republic (post-war), when the powers of presidents were very limited.”

“Today once again, power rests with groups in Parliament who may or may not come together around particular shared policies.”

Bayrou's first task will be to name a new government, which could take several days. The formation will be an indication of whether he has succeeded in building bridges with the socialists on the one hand, and the conservatives affiliated with Barnier on the other.

But he will have to very quickly draw up a new budget for 2025 to replace the one abandoned by Barnier's government. He will immediately face possible rebellions from the left and far right.

The idea by some parliamentarians of a kind of non-aggression pact – where the government pledges not to pass laws without a vote, and MPs pledge not to vote on a no-confidence motion – has been supported by Macron, who has also said he does not want that. The Council will be dissolved again before the end of its term in 2027.

But critics say such a deal would be a license for stalemate, with no agreement likely on important issues such as reducing the country's spiraling debt.