The first General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcons received by Ukraine fly on Ukrainian Air Force Day on August 4, 2024 in unspecified, Ukraine. At the event held on the occasion of the Ukrainian Air Force Day with the participation of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, the first General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcons received by Ukraine were displayed. (Photo by Vitaly Nosach/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Vitaly Nosach | Global Pictures Ukraine | Getty Images
After election Donald Trump With Republicans sweeping both chambers of Congress, the risk of the United States cutting its funding to Ukraine is a real possibility, raising concerns among leaders in Europe about what that means for the ongoing conflict.
Trump has previously expressed his desire to do so Ending the war in Ukraine within 24 hours He was highly critical of funding the war-torn country along with hard-line Republican members of Congress It almost blocked an important aid package in April this year. Sunday, Trump said on NBC's “Meet the Press” program: He said Ukraine would “likely” receive less military aid once he takes office.
But according to experts who spoke to CNBC, there is reason to believe that Europe, which is Ukraine's largest donor, could make up the shortfall if the United States withdraws or tightens that funding.
Aid to Ukraine
Ukraine relies on military and financial aid from international partners to continue its military campaign, especially the United States and Europe.
According to Kiel Institute of Economics Ukraine Support Trackerwhich tracks funding for Ukraine from January 2022 through October 2024, Europe has pledged 241 billion euros ($255 billion) in aid, and the United States has committed 119 billion euros. Of this amount, Europe has already allocated €125 billion and the United States €88 billion so far.
Both Europe and the United States have provided “a similar amount of military aid,” Pietro Bomberizzi, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker Project, told CNBC.
As Ukraine's largest donor and neighbor, Europe will face the brunt of the costs if US aid runs out and is not renewed under Trump. In the tracker's latest press update issued last week, Krzysztof Trebisch, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker, stated: “With current funding about to expire, all eyes are now on the incoming US administration and its willingness to support Ukraine.”
Can Europe bridge this gap?
European leaders have met several times since the election to bolster support for Ukraine, with many countries doubling down on their commitments.
Germany, Europe's largest donor to Ukraine, repeatedly reiterated its support for Ukraine and pledged more military aid during a surprise visit to Kiev last week. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “Ukraine can count on Germany.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has repeatedly blocked EU funding for Ukraine, took a different tone last month, noting that… Europe will not be able to fill this gap financially if the United States withdraws its aid.
But according to analysts who spoke to CNBC, Europe can fill the gaps, and it has several ways to do so.
in Last updated on December 5The Ukraine support tracker said that using profits from frozen Russian assets, which are “primarily available to European donors,” “could help them offset the loss of U.S. funds in the future.”
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank, told CNBC that “compensating for US financial support for Ukraine would be very easy for the EU,” using tools such as new joint debt, bilateral donations, and financial support. Seizing 250 billion euros of frozen Russian assets and distributing them to Ukraine.
Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said seizing and distributing frozen Russian assets would be a “game changer.” while $50 billion G7 loan using interest payments from Russian assets Although it is a small step in this direction, the European Union can do more because it has full control over these assets.
“If (the G7) has the will to do this, it can provide a huge slice of the aggressor’s money and direct it to the defense of Ukraine,” Gold-Davis said. He added that the main reason for not doing so is fear among some EU members of financial consequences.
There are also other ways Europe can fill the gaps. Kirkegaard mentioned the Danish model of financing Ukraine: instead of sending weapons manufactured in the West, which are more expensive to produce, countries could directly finance Ukraine's military-industrial complex.
Even if important US weapons are withdrawn, Kirkegaard points out that they can still be purchased: European countries could agree to a trade deal, as China did in 2018, and agree to buy US-made products, in this case weapons to Europe. Supplied to Ukraine in exchange for reduced customs duties.
Gold-Davies said that the amount Europe devotes to defending itself and Ukraine is “a purely political choice.”
He frames it as a balance of resources versus a balance of resolve – the balance of resources favors Europe, but the balance of resolve favors Russia: if Europe has the political will to leverage its resource advantage, Ukraine's defense can. It is greatly enhanced.
What happens if this is not the case?
Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC that while European countries would likely increase aid in the event of a US withdrawal, “it is unclear whether Ukraine will be able to bridge the gap between the two countries.” Withdrawing US aid and increasing European defense production.
If Europe does not increase its aid in the event of a US withdrawal, Ukraine will lose the war: “The danger is that we see in Kiev in 2026 what we saw in Kabul in 2021 – a military collapse that leads to the end of Ukraine and Ukrainian democracy.”
