Trump says Syria is not our battle. Staying abroad may not be so easy

When Donald Trump sat with world leaders in Paris last weekend to marvel at the restored Notre Dame Cathedral, Syria's armed Islamist fighters were in jeeps on the road to Damascus to put the finishing touches on the fall of the Assad regime.

In this split-screen moment of world news, the US president-elect, seated between the French first couple, was still watching the startling turn of events in the Middle East.

“Syria is a mess, but it is not our friend,” he wrote on the same day on his social network Truth.

He added: “The United States should not do anything about it. This is not our fight. Let it continue. Do not interfere!”

That post, and another the next day, served as a reminder of the president-elect's strong mandate not to interfere in foreign policy.

It also raised big questions about what comes next: Given the way the war has engulfed and affected regional and global powers, can Trump really have “nothing to do” with Syria now that President Bashar al-Assad’s government has fallen?

Will Trump withdraw US troops?

Is his policy radically different from that of President Biden, and if so, what is the point of the White House doing anything in the five weeks before Trump takes office?

The current administration is engaged in a frenetic round of diplomacy in response to the fall of Assad and the rise to power of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, an armed Syrian Islamist group designated by the United States as a terrorist organization.

I write this aboard Secretary of State Antony Blinken's plane, as he shuttles between Jordan and Turkey in an attempt to persuade the region's major Arab and Muslim countries to support a set of conditions Washington is setting for recognizing a future Syrian government.

The United States says it must be transparent and inclusive, must not be a “base for terrorism,” cannot threaten Syria's neighbors, and must destroy any stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons.

For Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security adviser, who has not yet been appointed, there is one guiding principle for his foreign policy.

“President Trump was elected with an overwhelming mandate not to involve the United States in any more Middle East wars,” he told Fox News this week.

He added that America's “core interests” there are represented by the Islamic State, Israel, and “our Arab allies in the Gulf.”

Waltz's comments were a neat summation of Trump's view of Syria as a small piece of his larger regional policy puzzle.

Its goals are to ensure that the remnants of ISIS remain contained, and to ensure that a future government in Damascus cannot threaten Washington's most important regional ally, Israel.

Trump is also focused on what he sees as the big prize: a historic diplomatic and trade agreement to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which he believes will further weaken and humiliate Iran.

The rest, Trump believes, is the Syrian “mess” that must be resolved.

Trump's rhetoric goes back to the way he spoke about Syria during his first term, when he mocked the country — which has an extraordinary cultural history dating back thousands of years — as a land of “sand and death.”

“I think Donald Trump himself didn't want to do much in Syria during his first administration,” said Robert Ford, who served as President Barack Obama's ambassador to Syria from 2011 to 2014 and who advocated within that administration for more American intervention. In the form of support for moderate Syrian opposition groups to confront Assad's brutal repression against his population.

He told the BBC: “But there are other people in his circle who care more about combating terrorism.”

The United States currently has about 900 troops in Syria east of the Euphrates River and in the 55-kilometre (34-mile) “deconfliction” zone on the border with Iraq and Jordan.

Their official mission is to confront ISIS, now badly degraded, in desert camps, and to train and equip the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF – the Kurdish and Arab allies of the United States who control the region).

The SDF also guards camps housing ISIS fighters and their families.

In practice, the American presence on the ground went further, helping to block a potential arms transfer route to Iran, which used Syria to supply its ally Hezbollah.

Ford, like other analysts, believes that while Trump's isolationist instincts play well on social media, the facts on the ground and the views of his team may eventually lead him to adjust his position.

This opinion is echoed by Wael Al-Zayat, former advisor for Syria affairs at the US State Department.

“He has some serious people in his administration who will manage the Middle East file,” he told the BBC, specifically noting that Senator Marco Rubio, who has been nominated for Secretary of State, is “a serious player in foreign policy.” “.

These tensions – between isolationist ideals and regional goals – also came to a head during his first term, when Trump withdrew remaining CIA funding for some “moderate” rebels and ordered the withdrawal of US forces from northern Syria in 2019.

At the time, Waltz called the move a “strategic mistake,” and fearing a resurgence of ISIS, Trump officials partially reversed his decision.

Trump also deviated from his non-interventionist ideals by launching 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airport, after Assad ordered a chemical weapons attack that killed dozens of civilians in 2017.

He also doubled sanctions against the Syrian leadership.

Waltz summed up the blurred lines of Trump's “it's not our fight” pledge.

“That doesn't mean he's not willing to get involved at all,” he told Fox News.

He added: “President Trump has no problem taking decisive action if the American homeland is threatened in any way.”

Adding to the potential for tension is the presence of another key figure, Tulsi Gabbard, who was nominated by Trump to be Director of National Intelligence. The controversial former Trump ally-turned-Democrat met with Assad in 2017 on a “fact-finding” trip, and at the time criticized Trump’s policies.

Recommended She is likely to be subjected to intense scrutiny by US senators amid accusations – which she has denied – that she is a defender of Assad and Russia..

The concern about continuing the mission in Syria, and the desire to be able to end it, is not limited to Trump.

In January, three American soldiers were killed at a US base in Jordan in a drone strike by Iranian-backed militias operating in Syria and Iraq, as the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza threatened to spread further into the region.

This attack and others have continued to raise questions in the Biden administration about the levels of US forces and their presence in the region.

In fact, many of the positions of the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administrations on Syria coincide more than they diverge.

Despite sharp differences in tone and rhetoric, both leaders want Damascus to run a government consistent with American interests.

Both Biden and Trump want to build on the humiliation of Iran and Russia in Syria.

Trump's statement “This is not our fight, let it continue” is the equivalent of the Biden administration's statement “This is a process that should be led by the Syrians, not the United States.”

But the “major” difference, and the one of greatest concern among Biden supporters, is Trump’s approach to US forces on the ground and US support for the Syrian Democratic Forces, said Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat in Washington who helped opposition figures flee. Assad regime.

He said, “Biden has more sympathy, connection, and emotion toward (the Kurds). Historically, he was one of the first senators to visit the Kurdish areas (in northern Iraq) after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait.”

He added, “Trump and his group do not care much… They take into consideration not to exclude their allies. They understand that, (but) the way they implement it is different.”

Barabande, who said he supports Trump's non-interference rhetoric, believes the president-elect will “absolutely” withdraw US troops, but on a gradual time frame and with a clear plan.

“It won't be like Afghanistan in 24 hours,” he said. He added, “A deadline will be set within six months or at any time for this and to arrange everything.”

Perhaps a lot revolves around Trump's discussions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom he is believed to have a close relationship.

US support for the SDF has long been a source of tension with Turkey, which considers the People's Protection Units (YPG) – the Kurdish force that forms the military backbone of the SDF – a terrorist organization.

Since the fall of Assad, Türkiye has launched air strikes to force Kurdish fighters out of strategic areas, including the city of Manbij.

Trump may want to strike a deal with his friend in Ankara that would allow him to withdraw US forces and could strengthen Türkiye's hand further.

But the possibility of Turkish-backed groups taking control of some areas worries many, including Wael Al-Zayat, a former US State Department expert on Syria.

“We cannot have different groups running different parts of the country and controlling different resources,” he added.

“There is either the political process, which I think the United States has a role to play, or something else, and I hope they avoid that last scenario.”