Aaron Lehman's soybean farm feels at the heart of Iowa as an oasis of calmness in turmoil and calm President Donald Trump's second term. However, all of this can change within weeks.
Lehman is preparing for the impact of a potential trade war in Washington, which he says may put the US corn belt low and harm an irreplaceable way in America with its neighbors.
“Farmers understand that trade relations are rising on a drawer, as they are working hard to build them, but they go down on an elevator – very fast,” Lehman said in the living room on his farm 20 miles north of the capital of Iowa. De Mine.
“The long -term influence is that countries around the world will not see us as a reliable partner.”
It was a troubled week in American commercial policy. Trump announced last weekend that he would be imposed by 25 percent of the customs tariff on Mexico and Canada, saying they did not do enough to stop the flow of illegal drugs to the United States. Then, after talks at the last minute with the leaders of the two countries, he agreed to give them both 30 days to be postponed.
The same was not the case for China. The 10 percent tax imposed on all Chinese imports is still in place. Many in Iowa believe it is a matter of time only before the customs tariffs of northern and southern neighbors in America.
I sent the opening to a new trade war cold through the Middle West. Canada, Mexico and China together represent half of all American agricultural exports. Only last year, the United States sold more than $ 30 billion from agricultural products to Mexico, 29 billion dollars to Canada and 26 billion dollars for China, according to the statistics of the US farm office.
Suddenly, farmers were facing the specter of revenge definitions and the possibility of a widespread conflict that some fear could fight the American rural heart.
Farmers in a country in the country that have become one of Trump now feel that the president's tariff, despite its suspension at the last minute, has always been affected by the image of the United States in the eyes of its most important commercial partners.
“We have moved from a seller to choose to the last resort seller,” said Mark Muller, a farmer near Waterloo in the northeast of Iowa.
Some American countries better embody agricultural wealth in the Middle West of Iowa. It is a land of vast corn fields that stretch as much as you can see the eye, and the broken landscapes by cross -grain silo, hay bale or low barn. Pigs exceed the number of people more than seven to one.
It is also the country of Trump. Although Iowa voted for Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, it supported Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 in larger numbers than ever.
More than five economics of Iowa – or 53.1 billion dollars – is associated with agriculture, from crops and livestock to food processing and manufacturing. It is the largest producer of corn, pig, eggs, ethanol in the country and soybean farms. This makes it especially vulnerable to any slowdown in agricultural exports.
“Free trade is the backbone of the economy in the Middle West,” said Erney Jose, an economist at the University of Creton in Omaha, Nebraska. “What we have here is some of the most productive agriculture on Earth, and the local market is not close to being large enough to accommodate all the goods produced here. You must have international markets.”
The last shot of the tariff threats sparked painful memories of the trade war that Trump launched in his first term. Among the most amazing movements, Trump imposed duties on $ 300 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing responded in 2018 by slapping 25 percent of customs duties on soybeans imports, beef, pork, wheat, corn and chore.
The skirmishes ended with the signing of countries on a commercial deal in 2020, Beijing pledged to increase its purchases for American goods and services. But since then, it has been buying more pills from countries like Argentina and Brazil, which exceeded the United States as the best corn resource in China in 2023.
In the last trade war, “many of our Asian buyers began developing relations with soy producers in South America, and they took more and more of our market.” “We did not return it.”
Not all Iowa farmers are not opposed to the way Trump used the threat of definitions to achieve a major political goal – which indicates illegal immigration.
It was a strategy that he needed to use. . . Steve Keper, a fourth -generation farmer in the state of Iowa, who cultivates corn and soybeans in Marion Province, southeast de Moen, said. After all, “The president has only four years to accomplish everything he promised, so he must get things immediately to gain traction.”
However, it is pessimistic that Mexico and Canada will be able to fulfill their pledges to Trump to enhance border security in time. He said, “It takes forever that these things happen, and they only have 30 days.”
The possibility of another round of trade tensions with American farmers is already in a narrow place, and decreases with decreased crop prices and high costs. The net farm income, a wide profit measure, was $ 181.9 billion in 2022, but it is expected to be $ 140.7 billion in 2024, according to USA data – by 23 percent.
“This (the trade war) does not come at a fun time,” said Rick -Guchims, a farmer near Blinfield in the northeast of Iowa. “The prices of goods are low and the price of inputs such as seeds and fertilizers rise.” Sources from the Association of Corn farmers in Iowa said that many farmers were producing at the loss of $ 100 per acre.
Joshims said that investments in the new equipment have decreased, which reflects the broader shrinkage. “I have friends who have lost their jobs in selling agricultural machines due to low demand. The pieces are full of unproductive tractors.”
Agricultural equipment makers such as Deare, Kinze Manufacturing and BidgesTone/Firestone have thrown hundreds of jobs in Iowa since last year.
However, the possibility of financing the farm can become more depressive if Trump benefits the threat of fees. Fertilizers, for example, can become much more expensive, because more than 80 percent of the US Potash supply – a major element – comes from Canada.
But perhaps the most destructive effect on the tariff discussion is the uncertainty it raised, before the decisive spring transplant season.
“We'll get what we know what will happen,” said Joshims. “But things are changing all the time. I am sure that the whole world laughs at us.”
Lehman said the farmers were trying to stay optimistic. “They told me that they are the cold heads of hope and this conflict will lead to good commercial agreements,” said Lyman. “But they are also preparing for the worse.”
