An employment mark is published at the door of Taco Bell on August 22, 2024 in Alexandria, Virginia.
Anna Rose Leiden Gety pictures
The labor market in the United States is likely to start in 2025 in a strong way, if there is little step down in terms of closed in the previous year.
When the work statistics office exports the number of its non -cultivated salaries for January, it is expected to show a growth of 169,000, a decrease from 256,000 in December, but is almost in line with the past three months. The unemployment rate is expected to remain 4.1 %, according to Dow Jones's agreement on the report, which will come out on Friday at 8:30 am.
Although ready -made meals can be that creating job opportunities slows down, the broader opinion is that the recruitment image is preserved, and it is unlikely a problem for Federal Reserve At any time in the near future.
“With inflation at least at the present time at acceptable levels and companies are very comfortable in continuous investment, there is no reason for not continuing to see job growth about 150,000 per month, which is the upper party of what is required to maintain the stable labor market. Joseph Brussuelas, chief economist. In RSM. “In other words, we are at full work. This is a good problem to face it. “
By the time when the Federal Reserve concluded its last three meetings of 2024, it reduced the main borrowing rate Full percentage. In part, this was because policy makers sought to support the labor market that showed signs of weakness.
However, modern indicators show that during the presence of employment, workers' demobilization operations do not increase and do not leave workers yet Job opportunities Decreased.
Such relative stability is a welcome sign with the possibility of that The Federal Reserve will be suspendedMaybe even summer, while officials are waiting to see the consequences of the president Donald TrumpThe financial agenda that includes Antistomic definitions Against the largest American commercial partners.
“The economy will continue to continue, people will make investment decisions, and they will wake up every morning and go to work.”
Annual reviews of focus
Although it is expected that the usual salary statements number will appear more or less conditions in the current situation, the markets will also see annual reviews of the questionnaire and home collected by BLS.
When the initial reviews were released in August 2024, they showed a Amazing 818,000 jobs lower It was created from what I mentioned earlier in the number of the facility from April 2023 to March 2024. This total is expected to decrease largely with migration and population modifications.
Reviews are also expected to show a record increase of 3.5 million people of the population and 2.3 million in family work, according to Goldman Sachs. The company sees more modest modifications to the highest workforce and unemployment.
BLS polls differed sharply in the following years. The facility scan is used to calculate the non -agricultural salary number of statements while BLS derives the unemployment rate from the number of family. The latter showed a less optimistic vision of the working conditions that can be corrected with reviews.
However, if the report is anywhere near expectations, it is unlikely that it is Stir the needle to the Federal Reserve Bank Even with the customs tariff question.
“The labor market is much more important for the Federal Reserve, which is taking place with customs tariffs,” said Eric Winozrad, director of economic research on the advanced market at Alliassebernstein. “The salary numbers are volatile. Anything can happen in any specific month. But nothing in particular makes me think that printing this month will look completely different from the past few, and this is sufficient to maintain the federal reserve.”
In addition to the main salary numbers and reviews, BLS will issue data on average profits per hour.
The estimate is for the month of January to show an increase of 0.3 % in wages and an increase of 3.7 % for 12 months. If the annual number is correct, this will be the lowest level since July 2024.
