During the first week of Donald Trump's presidency, the customs tariff – a favorite point of discussion during the presidential campaign last year – was the dogs that did not bark.
Trade appears to be a back seat while the new administration has been entered into the enforcement of immigration, an amnesty of riots in Capitol, fossil fuel energy policy and federal workforce disorder – among a set of new turbulent measures.
All this changed at the end of last week when Trump announced his 25 % sweeping on US allies in Canada and Mexico, along with 10 % duties on Chinese imports.
And “and” It has been late since then the imposition of these definitions His neighbors in North America for a month after the two countries agreed to new border measures, the president still faces a moment of the account that he will eventually must decide whether to match his speech with work.
Trump often talks about the trade deficit between the United States and its neighbors as a major source of his lack of satisfaction. If this is the case, it will not make any amount of the new border security or drug attacks – whatever the specified standards or demands – the president completely abandons his identification threats.
Trump also said that he looks at definitions not only as a tool for achieving politics goals, but as a permanent source of American revenues and means of financing government programs and reducing the budget deficit. If this is its final goal, the definitions of the largest commercial partners in America may be the only effective answer.
Global financial markets fell on this possibility on Monday, as the United States appeared on the brink of a multi -term trade war with some of its closest economic partners.
After that, after talks with Mexican President Claudia Shinbom and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump put the definitions to stop. While the new duties in China entered into force – It has paid reprisal measures from Beijing The markets have seen that US movements are less sabotage and smaller in their scope.
On the contrary, if the United States participated in a increasing series of definitions with Canada and Mexico, which represents more than 1.57 Triniton (1.24 Trinon pounds) in the goods in 2023, the global economic impact could be catastrophic.
This bitter development has been avoided, at the present time, with Trump's announcement and management at least a partial victory.
However, the details of what Canada and Mexico recognized, however, draw a more complex picture.
While Canada has agreed to form a joint strike force to combat crime with the United States and the appointment of “Ventanil Caesar”, the tangible steps that were all were part of a security package for the boundaries previously announced by Canada.
Mexico pledged to intensify drug control and 10,000 soldiers to carry out on the border between the United States and Mexico – but these numbers reflect the publication operations made by the nation in 2019 and again in 2021
Within one month, Trump will once again decide whether Canada and Mexico are doing enough to meet his demand – or whether the late definitions will enter into force.
Solid numbers show progress, however, it may be difficult to get.
According to management measures, US immigration officials seized only 43 lbs (19.5 kg) of fentanel and flared up 193,540 people crossing the United States and Canada borders in 2024. The numbers are much higher for the American borders and Mexico, but not documented-and drugs. Steples- there, as well.
Global financial markets have been greatly calmed since Monday morning. Investors seem to have concluded that Trump in trade is more blurry than work.
The president may be able to extract more concessions from Canadian and Mexican leaders within a month, but they may also conclude at some point that Trump does not have the will to follow his threats.
Despite the allegations of success, the formulation of his wool on trade can eventually lead to decreasing returns.
At that point, the president will have the decision to make it. Does he raise his most severe introductory plans for good? Was his dreams in returning the United States to the late nineteenth century – commercial policy – which he said was a golden age of the American economic power – unrealistic?
Or is it ahead of his vision of the new global trade order that focuses on America despite the danger of economic pain in the short term at least?
That moment was delayed. But it is coming.
Follow the fluctuations and turns in Trump's second presidential term with the North American correspondent Anthony Zurer weekly American policy is not owned Newsletter. Readers in the United Kingdom can Subscribe here. Those can outside the United Kingdom Subscribe here.
