Within 16 months of war, Benjamin Netanyahu refused to say what he imagined for the future of Gaza. However, it may be the day of the account of both the long -service Israeli leader and the broken Palestinian pocket.
Netanyahu US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet next week at the White House, where the discussion is expected to focus on whether the temporary truce agreed last month – and it will be scheduled to be nominated for another four weeks – will become a permanent ceasefire.
Ostensibly, Netanyahu is committed to two calmness at the beginning of the war: destruction agitation In the Gaza Strip, and the return of all the hostages who were seized during the armed group attack on October 7, 2023, Israeli officials say that 1,200 people were killed and raised the conflict.
But it is clear ever that these goals are almost incompatible. The fighting did not end soon, as the operation that will eventually return 33 hostages, as Hamas gunmen appeared to reaffirm the control of coastal lands, display their weapons and organize collective marches.
It was a horrific reminder to the Israeli audience that the “complete victory” that Netanyahu-despite a fierce attack by local officials that 47,000 Palestinians-were tired.
Michael Milchain, a former Israeli intelligence officer, said the war “did not force the collapse of Hamas or the release of the hostages.” There were “tactical achievements, but there is no strategic direction. Hamas is still governing, and the dominant actor in Gaza is still.”
Next week, international intermediaries will start talks about the details of the second phase of cease-fireIt is expected that it will be solid negotiations to ensure the freedom of dozens of additional hostages and to obtain the warring parties to agree to a complete stop.
Netanyahu will soon need to determine whether he is ready to see the deal until finishing.
On the one hand, he must count with Trump the Mechanical, his most important international sponsor, who has the strong Israeli leader to accept the 42 -day first truce and restore all hostages his primary goal.
On the other hand, Netanyahu must maintain members of his right -wing right men like Bezallil Sottic, Minister of Finance. Sottic, who opposed the ceasefire, pledged to leave and “dismantle” the ruling Netanyahu alliance if Israel did not resume the war and restore the longing of Gaza once the first stage of the deal ends in late February.
This is the clear dilemma that Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategic expert who has worked with Netanyahu in the past, has described as “Sandwich Baby”, referring to the veteran leader by his title.
In a blatant contradiction with Smotrich, “Trump wants to continue the deal. The goal is to end Gaza (war).”
However, in the development of Trumpan, Smotrich and other extremist leaders seized the recent repeated American leader's calls to “clean” Gaza and transfer the majority of the population to Egypt, Jordan and other Islamic countries.
“I am working with the prime minister and ministers to prepare an operational plan and make sure this vision is achieved for President Trump,” Smotrich said last week.
Although Netanyahu did not prove this option – which was widely condemned as a form of ethnic cleansing that could be shaken by the region's stability – a person familiar with the thinking of the Israeli government claiming Trump's comments “was not a surprise.”
“This is not an idea that just came to Trump,” the person said. Israel was aware that he would say that. They are (the United States and Israel) alignment and coordination. “
However, many interpreted Trump's inflammatory comments as an opening maneuver in greater negotiations, not only on the future of the Palestinian territories.
Former US President Joe Biden represented in front of him, Trump did not hide his desire to link the end of Gaza's struggle to a broader normalization agreement between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which insists on establishing a “irreversible” road to a Palestinian state. Normalization with the Kingdom will be an incentive for Netanyahu to end the war – his leadership is unwilling to agree during the contradiction of the conflict – and its legacy believes.
As Adam Balller, Trump envoy in hostage affairs, told Israel Channel 12 on Wednesday, that “the Arab states should make an alternative option” if they oppose the US President's plan. He said Trump is “always open to different options.”
The preferred option for Israel and its American allies, although it is unlikely, is the possibility that Hamas, as part of the negotiations for the second stage, agrees with good risk to put its arms and go to exile.
Netanyahu said, the person familiar with the thinking of the Israeli government, “does not want more enthusiasm (in Gaza), and has support for that.”
However, the most reasonable plans offered by Arab allies in the United States such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates to establish an internationally backed transitional body backed by the Palestinian Authority to reaffirm the civil control of the pocket.
However, the Netanyahu government rejected the war time for the Palestinian Authority, which is practicing limited independence in the occupied West Bank and was violently expelled from Gaza by Hamas in 2007, to return to the tape.
Avi Isacharoff, Israeli analyst and co -author of Voda The TV series, which includes PA is the only realistic option for an “alternative regime” in Gaza.
He said: “Trump must now put the second stage when the Palestinian Authority enters the concessions of Gaza and Hamas.” “They need to make Hamas understand that they cannot stay in power.”
Other analysts argue that the huge price for rebuilding Gaza – estimated at billions of dollars – will limit the negotiation force in Hamas.
But Milchain, a former Israeli intelligence analyst, argued that any such plan was “naive” and was committed to failure. He said that the portable Palestinian Authority – led by October President Mahmoud Abbas – will be just a figure that allows Cames to remain the actual military force on the ground.
Instead, Milstein argued in a third track: to complete an agreement to stop the entire Gaza, return all Israelis from families and admit that Hamas will remain in power in the foreseeable future-until the next war.
“We cannot live with Hamas in Gaza, but this will require a big campaign as we will need to seize Gaza, stay there for a long time, and dismantle Hamas's rule,” Milchain said. This requires dangerous planning, as well as local and international support. It will take years. “
Ultimately, Netanyahu did not rule out the possibility of returning to the war – “in new ways and with great joy,” he said last month – if negotiations with Hamas collapsed.
Two people familiar with the matter said that Trump and Biden presented to Israel written guarantees that they would return to the fight if Hamas violates the conditions of a ceasefire.
It is very important that it is still unclear whether this will include a breakdown in negotiations during the second stage of the deal.
But at the present time, Netanyahu has several weeks to make a decision. “A long time in this war,” said Strategic political expert. “Bibi is not a gambler – he will take what he thinks is (contradictory) options until the last minute, and even after that, then choose.”
Drawing maps by Iditi Bahandari
