Getty ImagesRussian naval vessels appear to have temporarily left their main port in Syria, satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify have shown, amid continued uncertainty over Moscow's military future in the country following the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad.
Images taken by Maxar on December 10 show that some ships have left the Tartous naval base since Sunday and are currently located offshore in the Mediterranean Sea.
Meanwhile, other photos taken on the same day show continued activity at the main Russian air base in Syria, Hmeimim, with planes clearly visible on the runway.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Moscow will enter into talks with the next authorities regarding the future Russian military presence.
“Everything possible is now being done to contact those involved in ensuring security, and of course, our army is also taking all necessary precautions,” he told reporters in Moscow.
He previously warned that it was “too early” to speculate on the future of the rules.
He added: “You know that we of course maintain contacts with those who control the situation in Syria now. This is necessary because we have our bases there and our diplomatic office (the embassy). And of course ensuring the safety and security of our facilities.” “It is of the utmost importance,” he told reporters.
The naval facility in Tartus houses elements of the Black Sea Fleet and is Russia's only repair and refit center in the Mediterranean. Created by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, Russia expanded and modernized it in 2012 when the Kremlin began increasing its support for President Assad's regime.
Russian ships are allowed to remain in the Mediterranean without having to return to Black Sea ports through the Turkish Straits. It is also a deep-water port, meaning it can host submarines from Moscow's nuclear fleet, according to the US Naval Institute.
New satellite images show that Moscow has at least temporarily moved its ships out of port, with two guided-missile frigates anchored about 13 kilometers (eight miles) off the Syrian coast. It is unclear where the rest of the fleet – shown in the previous photos – is currently located.
It is also unclear whether their departure was part of a permanent withdrawal from Tartus. In recent weeks, satellite images have repeatedly shown naval ships coming in and out of the port.
Mike Plunkett of open source defense intelligence analysts at Jane's noted that the Russian moves appear to have been “made to ensure that their ships are not vulnerable to attack.”
He added: “Whether they are concerned about an attack from Syrian rebels or collateral damage resulting from any Israeli strike on Syrian assets in Tartous.”
Frederik Van Lokeren, a former captain and analyst in the Belgian Navy, told the BBC that it appeared that the Russian ships were now in a holding pattern while Moscow deliberated on its next move.
“They're in limbo right now, because they don't quite know what's going to happen,” Van Lokeren said.
“Obviously, since they are remaining there, it appears that Russia is not ready to withdraw all of its naval ships from the region yet, which may be an indication that they are negotiating with regional partners to see where they can redeploy these ships.” Ships.”
Analysts speculated that if Russia had to close the Tartus naval facility, it could redeploy its presence to Tobruk in Libya. The region is under the control of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who is backed by the Kremlin, and already hosts some Russian air bases.
But withdrawing from Tartus would be very costly, and Van Lockeren noted that the move would bring Russian ships closer to NATO bases, making them easier to track. He said that at present, there was no indication that Russia was moving the naval assets needed to remove the equipment from Tartus.
Meanwhile, since 2015, the Hmeimim air base has become a key part of Russian operations across the Middle East and Africa. They have been used to launch devastating air strikes on cities across Syria in support of the Assad regime, while also being used to transport military contractors to Africa.
Satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify showed at least two large aircraft – identified by Janes as an IL-76 transport plane – still sitting on the tarmac at the base on December 10. Helicopters can also be seen at the base in the photos.
Janes also points out that air defense systems deployed at the site remain visible in the northwest corner of the image.
Dara Massicot, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Sunday that evacuating the air base would involve a massive airlift that would require many more planes than those shown in satellite images, suggesting Moscow is not planning an imminent evacuation. .
“When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew nearly 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before the base was expanded,” she wrote on X.
“It will be clear that there has been a change that indicates a major evacuation,” she added.
Despite the current pattern of control displayed by Russian forces, the fall of the Assad regime represents a major blow to the Kremlin's ambitions in the region. During a visit to the Hmeimim air base in 2017, President Vladimir Putin made clear that he intended Moscow's presence to be a long-term project.
Commenting on the situation, influential pro-Kremlin military blogger Rebar warned on Telegram that Russia's exercise of force in the region is at serious risk.
He concluded that “the Russian military presence in the Middle East region is hanging by a thread.”
Additional reporting by Paul Kuziak. Graphics by Mark Edwards.
