The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazu Oida, answers the questions during the governors' talk about inflation and Japanese monetary policy at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group meeting 2024 in Washington, United States, October 23, 2024.
Kylie Greenley Bell Reuters
Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday to 0.5%, bringing the interest rate to its highest level since 2008, as part of its endeavor to normalize its monetary policy.
This step comes in line with the expectations in the CNBC survey from January 15 to 20, which witnessed a decrease in interest rates The overwhelming majority expect economists to rise.
After the decision, Japanese yen Co -shattered in a marginal way to circulate at 156.09 against the dollar, while it was the country's standard indicator Nikki 225 The stock index increased by 0.59%.
The senior officials of the Bank of Japan, including Governor Kazo Oida and Deputy Governor Ryuzo Hemino, have indicated the central bank's readiness to raise interest rates.
Hemino said in a speech to business leaders on January 14, that the Bank of Japan will closely monitor the “hunto” wages negotiations, and hopes to see “strong wages” in the fiscal year 2025.
In a memo on January 21, Vincent Chung, co -manager of the various income bond strategy in T .
He added that the interest rate may exceed 1%, as this is closer to the minimum rate of the neutral interest rate of Japan.
In September, Board of Directors of the Bank of Japan Naoki Tamura He said the neutral average “It will be at least about 1 percent,” although the Bank of Japan has no official expectations for a neutral interest rate.
Chong noted that while Japanese officials indicated that the fluctuations of the yen were great, but any fundamental intervention in the currency, similar to what happened last year, appears to be unlikely.
Japanese yen last July The dollar has reached its lowest level against the dollar since 1986To reach 161.96. Japanese authorities They later confirmed that they spent 5.53 trillion yenOr $ 36.8 billion to support the yen in July.
Japan More than 15.32 trillion yen spent (97.06 billion dollars) to support currency over the year 2024.
Chong said that inflation in the United States may rise later in this quarter, along with sustainable economic growth, and this may lead to escalating pressure on returns, which may lead to the strengthening of the dollar – which weakens the yen.
“Investors must also take into account that with the potential major shifts in commercial policy and the Federal Reserve's approach to temporary pause, it is likely that the risks to growth on both sides are larger this year than they were in 2024. Thus, we expect fluctuations to remain Achieved in the pair of dollars/Yen USD/JPY is high in 2020. ” 2025 “, concludes.
