The Champions League is set to witness a dramatic final week with some big names, most notably Manchester City, canceled to avoid elimination.
There were a lot of skeptics when UEFA unveiled a new format for its first competition, but it provided some good storylines ahead of Round 8.
The biggest issue is whether City, the 2023 World Cup winners and four-time defending Premier League champions, avoid elimination.
So, what do we know so far?
Guaranteeing the top eight places: Liverpool, Barcelona
Top 24 guaranteed (at least): Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, Milan, Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, Brest, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, Celtic
Progress is uncertain: PSV Eindhoven, Club Brugge, Benfica, Paris Saint-Germain, Sporting, Stuttgart, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb, Shakhtar Donetsk
Excluded: Bologna, Sparta Prague, Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys.
One match left! 😲#UCL pic.twitter.com/jEYfEM9kTC
– UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 22, 2025
Possible scenarios
Top 8 (places 1 to 8)
A sporting miracle is required to deny Arsenal and Inter Milan the lead.
Pretty much the same can be said about Atletico Madrid and Milan.
This leaves Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen as possibilities. Given that Leverkusen hosts lowly Sparta Prague, it seems unlikely that Xabi Alonso's men will not progress. Atalanta must visit Barcelona, which is an altogether more difficult task.
Should the Europa League champions fail in Catalonia, Aston Villa could take advantage and slip into the top eight with victory over Celtic at Villa Park.
Qualifiers (places 9-24)
There are some big names floating around in positions 9 to 24 currently – Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain to name a few.
Real Madrid and Bayern will look to win their final matches to maintain a seeded spot, meaning they won't be able to face another team from ninth to 16th.
Paris Saint-Germain's hopes received a major boost after their stunning comeback from 2-0 down to beat Manchester City 4-2 at the Parc des Princes last night.
Those looking from the outside (places 25-36)
City top a list of three teams that are currently outside the play-off positions but could still progress. The list also includes Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk.
Pep Guardiola's expensively assembled side are two points off the play-off places and must beat Club Brugge at the Etihad next week to stand any chance. In normal seasons, that might be seen as a good thing, but City have been uncharacteristically poor this season and will face a Brugge side who are unbeaten in 19 games.
All other parties are eliminated.
Here are Opta Supercomputer's predictions after tonight's matches and with only one day remaining of the UEFA Champions League stage in 2024-25.
Keep up on https://t.co/EZ2xKssZGg ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/yoJYbJOBry
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) January 22, 2025
How do the qualifiers work?
Teams that finish nine to 16 are seeded and will play the team that finish 17 to 24 over home and away matches.
Teams are put into pairs to hold a small draw. So, the teams that finished 9th and 10th will play the teams that finished 23rd or 24th. Likewise, the teams that finished 11th and 12th will play the teams that finished 21st or 22nd.
The eight teams that won the play-off round will advance to the round of 16 to face the eight teams that automatically qualified via the group stage.
When is the qualifying draw?
The draw will take place at 11am GMT on Friday 31 January.
ℹ️ New look. New draw.#UCLdraw | #UELdraw | #UECLdraw pic.twitter.com/QKTwVPMhQU
– UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) August 20, 2024
When are the playoff matches held?
It is organized over two weeks.
The first leg matches will be held on February 11 and 12, with the return matches taking place a week later on February 18 and 19.
