Donald Trump did not impose any new trade tariffs on the first day of his second term, as markets feared, but the US President laid out the official blueprint for his “US Trade First” policy.
A Presidential memorandum He called on federal agencies to address “unfair trade practices” and identify “currency manipulators.” Trade agreements with China, Canada, Mexico and all other partners have been placed under review.
The message was: The Trump administration is prepared to use all means to re-engineer trade flows to its advantage. Here are five takeaways from the opening salvos of Trump's trade agenda.
Strict pledges of “tariffs sooner rather than later”
Trump mentioned tariffs only three times in his inaugural address, placating investors and trading partners who had been warned to expect tariffs “from day one.” But he outlined plans to establish an external revenue service to collect customs duties, indicating serious plans to increase revenues from trade.
Tariff decisions will likely be delayed, but not abandoned, said Josh Lipsky, a senior director at the Atlantic Council think tank. “The president was concerned about the market reaction on Tuesday and did not want to spoil his first day.”
The president's “America First” memorandum provided the framework for the new agenda, announcing a series of reviews of unfair trade practices, the causes of America's trade deficit, and whether competitors are manipulating currencies and imposing unfair taxes on American companies.
Trump too His speech became more intense And repeated threats to apply 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, despite the free trade agreement between the two countries. When asked about the possibility of global tariffs on anyone doing business with the United States, the president said: “We might do that. But we're not ready for that yet.”
“The state's first experience is to expect tariffs sooner rather than later,” Lipsky warned, adding that the administration does not yet have a full economic team and wants to create solid legal bases for any moves.
Focus on neighbors first
Trump appears to be prioritizing actions related to the United States' closest trading partners, saying he is preparing to implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico on February 1.
Trump had no qualms about hitting US allies in his first term, citing national security concerns to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. But by publicly turning to Canada, analysts say he is signaling that no country is safe from the self-proclaimed “tariff man.”
Trump's trade memo ordered a review of trade relations with Canada and Mexico by April 1 (a later date than Trump's tariff warning, which the president did not clarify). Preparations will then begin for a comprehensive review of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement in July 2026.
One priority highlighted in the trade memo is Trump's determination to stem “illegal immigration and flows of fentanyl,” especially from Mexico and Canada.
Many supply chains for US manufacturers, Especially car manufacturersrelies on operations in the three countries and these companies could pressure Trump to back down from his threats.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday that his country takes Trump's proposals “seriously.” He will respond If tariffs are imposed, while Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would focus on “decrees, not rhetoric.”
Systemic reform, including towards China
Other parts of the President's policy cover the means needed to enable a comprehensive shift in Washington's dealings with its trading partners.
“I don't expect margin adjustments,” said Kelly Anne Shaw, a partner at law firm Hogan Lovells and a former trade adviser to Trump. “But instead, a review of the entire trade and economic toolkit leads to important action.”
The wide range of initiatives launched by the memorandum include investigating currency manipulation. Trump had previously accused China of devaluing the renminbi to boost the value of its exports.
The president also directed his trade representative, Jamison Greer, to review U.S. trade deals, including a limited deal struck during the first Trump administration that was intended to boost exports to China.
Several sections of the memo direct various US economic officials to investigate US economic relations with China more broadly, including reviewing existing tariffs on Chinese goods.
Greer was also asked to identify potential new deals with significant market access for “American workers, farmers, ranchers, service providers and other businesses,” suggesting that a second Trump administration may be open to crafting new trade agreements.
“This is a pretty huge deal. It makes me think that at some point there will be a trade bill in Congress,” said Everett Eisenstat, a partner at the law firm Squire Patton Boggs in Washington. “Once the trade bills start moving, they tend to “It's very important and the laws don't change very often.”
Using trade as a weapon to achieve various ends
Trump has linked tariffs to other policy goals, beyond reducing the trade deficit.
He has promised to impose tariffs on EU products unless bloc members buy more US oil and gas. Trump on Monday also suggested that tariffs on China could stop TikTok ownership deal. He said he would impose duties on Chinese imports of up to 100 percent if Beijing failed to agree on a deal to sell at least 50 percent of the app to an American company.
Anahita Thoms, head of international trade at law firm Baker McKenzie in Germany, said Trump is using tariff threats to maximize his influence.
“I don't think he's bluffing, but he's using it as a negotiating tool,” she said. Now “each country will know what concessions it has to make to be on good terms.”
Threats carry collateral damage. “Tariffs will be inflationary,” Toms said, adding that Trump “would not want to do something that has a negative impact on inflation.”
“Global” definitions and global implications
US imports from countries such as Vietnam and Mexico rose during Trump's first term. This reflects a trend of Chinese manufacturers seeking to bypass US tariffs by exporting to America via third countries.
Trump's trade team recognized this. His memo calls on Greer to consider additional definitional amendments to address “fraud through third countries.”
The memo asks officials to consider whether a “global supplementary tariff” could be used to address the “large and persistent” US annual trade deficit. This suggests that something similar to the global tariffs Trump promised during his campaign could emerge.
His threats could also motivate other countries to trade more with each other. Since December only, The European Union has reached agreements With the Mercosur group of South American countries and Mexico while resuming talks with Malaysia after more than a decade.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the global trading system would survive “initial shock” From the trade barriers imposed by Trump.
