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If Iran is a sitting duck and Joe Biden is a lame duck, who is Donald Trump? Some might say a bird of prey; Others are eagle. There is a minority who believe it is a dove. In fact, few people, including Trump, have any idea what he will do in the Middle East or beyond. The world has become accustomed to an America that conforms to a certain pattern, even if it trades on its own rules when they are inconvenient. With Trump, this clarity disappears. Is the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria considered good news, bad news, or a matter of indifference? It's hard to say.
What is clear is that Assad's collapse represents a bad moment for the four-member “axis of unrest.” Two of them – Russia and Iran – lost their most important friend in the Middle East, and they could do nothing to save him. All four of its core members, including China and North Korea, have been reminded that even the most brutal regimes can suddenly disintegrate. The same applies to Axis singers in Cuba and Venezuela. In terms of initial geopolitics, last week was good for the United States. But it says little about what is to come.
Iran has rarely been more vulnerable. After Israel was able to destroy most of the regime's air defenses and missile production facilities, the window of temptation for Israel to launch a strike with a greater degree of destruction is rising. Iran has also lost most of its proxy shields. Hezbollah has been severely weakened. Hamas is a shadow of itself. Syria is now hostile territory. Moreover, the stock of Benjamin Netanyahu being held back by Biden will soon run out. The question is: What path will Trump take?
Chaos is the playground where Trump thrives. It is also his preferred management style. Trying to predict Trump's desires through his appointments is futile. On the one hand, there is Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, and Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor. Both are traditional Republican hawks, who have long been critical of Assad, Iran, Russia and China. On the other hand, there are figures like Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's pick for Director of National Intelligence, who has for years expressed admiration for Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Incoming Vice President J.D. Vance's worldview is closer to Gabbard's. Vance He praised Assad as a protector of Christians.
The radically different foreign policy instincts in Trump's choices indicate one thing: He likes his followers to be in conflict with each other. It is not known which of these two worldviews will gain dominance, or whether Trump's actions will be driven by ulterior commercial motives. Even Israel must be confused. Trump 2.0 may be the most pro-Israel administration in US history. It will also include domestic hardliners close to America's anti-Semitic far-right.
The choices facing Iran are unenviable. Near the end of his first term, Trump ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani, Iran's most powerful military figure, in a drone airstrike. This was the first time since World War II that the United States had publicly assassinated a foreign official. However, this came after months during which Trump refused to respond to Iranian attacks on US naval vessels and on friends, including Saudi oil facilities. Both Trump's actions and inaction were a surprise.
It was the effects of Trump's policy of exerting maximum pressure on Iran, and his withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear treaty, that prompted Tehran to strongly intensify its nuclear program. You failed. But in chaos there is also opportunity. Today, Iran is no longer a major regional power. Its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was elected on the basis of a pledge to restore prosperity, which will not be possible without easing US sanctions. Pezeshkian groped Trump.
Last month, Elon Musk, the mega-billionaire at the heart of Trump's Mar-a-Lago court, met in New York with Iran's ambassador to the United Nations. It is not known what they discussed. Even if it was unauthorized, Musk's history of working as a freelancer is strange. The message emerging from Trump's beauty pageant in Palm Beach is that everything from war to peace is possible. Trump's foreign policy will mark a golden age for mediators. for him Cirque du Soleil He arrives in Washington next month.
Will there be a pattern to this? Trump is returning to a point where it is no longer possible to talk about a world order. It is the harbinger and accelerator of the death of the ancient. The risks of war and a new era of nuclear proliferation are growing. However, the outgoing Biden administration remained bereft of answers. Trump may choose to play the role of the new midwife. But it seems more likely to reap chaos.
