Written by Jonathan Spicer, Tufan Gomrukku, and Maya Gebeli
ISTANBUL/DAMASCUS (Reuters) – Negotiators are focusing on a potential deal to resolve one of the most contentious questions looming over Syria's future: the fate of Kurdish forces that the United States sees as key allies against Islamic State but which neighboring Turkey regards as national security. to threaten.
Diplomatic and military negotiators from the United States, Turkey, Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces are showing greater flexibility and patience than their public statements suggest, dozens of sources told Reuters, including five directly involved in an extensive network of attacks. Discussions in recent weeks.
Six of the sources said this could pave the way for an agreement in the coming months for some Kurdish fighters to leave the turbulent northeast of Syria and for others to come under the authority of the new Defense Ministry.
But they said many thorny issues needed to be resolved. These include how to integrate heavily armed and trained SDF coalition fighters into the Syrian security framework and manage the territory under their control, which includes major oil and wheat fields.
In an interview with Saudi Arabia's Al-Sharq news channel on Tuesday, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said the coalition's “basic demand” was decentralized administration — a potential challenge to the new Syrian leadership, which wants to return the entire country to government authority after its departure. Bashar al-Assad was overthrown last month.
Abdi indicated that the Syrian Democratic Forces have no intention of dissolving, saying that they are open to linking with the Ministry of Defense and working according to its rules, but “as a military bloc.”
New Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra rejected this approach in an interview with Reuters on Sunday, saying that the suggestion that the Syrian Democratic Forces remain a single bloc was “incorrect.”
The former rebels now in power in Damascus have said they want to integrate all armed groups into the official Syrian forces under a unified command. When asked for comment, the Syrian Democratic Forces referred Reuters to the interview conducted by its commander.
How much autonomy the Kurdish factions will likely retain depends on whether incoming US President Donald Trump continues Washington's longstanding support for its Kurdish allies, according to diplomats and officials from all parties.
Trump has not spoken publicly about his intentions, including his plans to deploy about 2,000 US troops stationed in Syria. Trump's representative did not comment.
Any agreement also depends on whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stops the military offensive he is threatening against the People's Protection Units, the Kurdish militia that leads the Syrian Democratic Forces coalition.
Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 and is considered a terrorist group by both Türkiye and the United States.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this month that the new Syrian authorities “must be given a chance… to end the occupation and terrorism created by the YPG” but did not say how long Ankara would wait for it to disarm before launching an incursion. .
A Turkish Foreign Ministry source said that the disarmament of armed groups and the departure of “foreign terrorist fighters” are necessary for Syria’s stability and territorial integrity, so the sooner this happens the better.
The source said, “We express these expectations in the strongest terms during our contacts with both the United States and the new administration in Damascus.”
Intense conversations
US and Turkish officials have been holding “very intense” discussions since opposition fighters led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, launched a lightning attack from their stronghold in the northwest of the country that ousted Assad on December 8, a senior US official said. A diplomat told Reuters.
The diplomat said that the two countries have a “shared vision of where things should end,” including the belief that all foreign fighters should leave Syrian territory, noting that Turkish negotiators “have a very high sense of urgency” to settle matters.
But the diplomat, who like some other sources requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations, said the talks were “very complex” and would take time.
Officials from all parties say that parallel talks are taking place between the United States and the Syrian Democratic Forces and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Turkey and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, and the Syrian Democratic Forces and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham.
The Kurds, part of a stateless ethnic group stretching across Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, were among the few winners in the Syrian conflict, seizing control of Arab-majority areas as the United States joined them in the campaign against ISIS. They now control nearly a quarter of the country.
But Assad's fall has left Syrian Kurdish factions on the defensive, with Turkish-backed armed groups controlling territory in the northeast and the country's new rulers in Damascus friendly with Ankara.
Türkiye, which has provided direct support to some rebel groups against Assad, has emerged as one of the most influential power brokers in Syria since his fall. Like the United States, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham has designated a terrorist group due to its past in al-Qaeda, but Ankara is believed to have significant influence over the group.
Officials on all sides are concerned that failure to reach a ceasefire and long-term political agreement in the country's northeast could destabilize Syria as it seeks to recover from a 13-year civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions and drawn in countries from… Among them is Russia. Iran and Israel.
Dozens have been reported killed in northern Syria since December in clashes between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and Türkiye's allies, and in Turkish air strikes across the border.
Failure to resolve the fate of Kurdish factions in Syria could undermine emerging efforts to end the PKK insurgency in Türkiye.
The United Nations warned of “serious consequences” for Syria and the region if a political solution is not reached in the northeast of the country.
Potential business deals
American support for the Syrian Democratic Forces has been a source of tension with its NATO ally, Türkiye.
Washington considers the Syrian Democratic Forces a key partner in confronting ISIS, which Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned would try to use this period to rebuild its capabilities in Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces are still guarding tens of thousands of detainees linked to the group.
Erdogan said on Wednesday that Türkiye has the ability to “crush” all terrorists in Syria, including ISIS and Kurdish militants.
Turkey wants to transfer the management of the camps and prisons where ISIS detainees are held to the new rulers of Syria and has offered to help them. It also demanded that the SDF expel all foreign fighters and senior members of the PKK from its territory and disarm the remaining members in a way it can verify.
Abdi, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, has shown flexibility regarding some Turkish demands, telling Reuters last month that his foreign fighters, including members of the PKK, would leave Syria if Turkey agreed to a ceasefire.
The PKK said in a statement to Reuters on Thursday that it would agree to leave if the SDF maintained control over the northeast of the country or played a significant role in the joint command.
Omer Unhun, the last Turkish ambassador to Damascus, told Reuters that such guarantees were unlikely to satisfy Ankara at a time when the SDF is trying to “survive and gain autonomy” in Syria.
In Ankara, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani said on Wednesday that the intense presence of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces is no longer justified, and that the new administration will not allow Syrian territory to be a source of threat to Turkey. His Turkish counterpart Fidan, standing next to him, said it was time to put counter-terrorism pledges into practice.
Abdi told Al-Sharq News that he met with the de facto leader of Syria, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, and the two sides agreed to form a joint military committee to decide how to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces with the Ministry of Defense. He described the meeting with Al-Sharaa, who heads Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham, as positive.
Abu Qasra, the Minister of Defense, accused SDF leaders on Sunday of “procrastinating” on the issue, saying that “merging all regions under the new administration… is a right of the Syrian state.”
A ministry official told Reuters that the new leadership believes that allowing SDF fighters to continue operating as a single bloc “would risk destabilization, including a coup.”
Abdi said decentralized administration would not threaten Syria's unity, saying the SDF does not demand the kind of federalism that was introduced in Iraq, where the Kurds have their own regional government.
Some Syrian officials and diplomats say the SDF will likely need to give up control of significant territory and oil revenues it gained during the war, as part of any political settlement.
In return, Kurdish factions could be granted protection of their language and culture within a decentralized political structure, said Bassam al-Quwatli, head of the small Syrian Liberal Party, which supports minority rights but is not participating in the talks.
A high-ranking Syrian Kurdish source acknowledged that some of these trade-offs would likely be needed, but did not go into detail.
Abdi told Al-Sharq News that the Syrian Democratic Forces are open to handing over responsibility for oil resources to the new administration, on the condition that the wealth is distributed fairly to all governorates.
Washington called for an “orderly transition” to the role of the Syrian Democratic Forces.
The US diplomat said Assad's ouster opens the door for Washington to eventually consider withdrawing its forces from Syria, although much depends on whether trusted forces like their Kurdish allies remain engaged in efforts to counter any resurgence of ISIS.
Trump's return to the White House on Monday raised hopes in Türkiye of reaching a positive agreement, given the relationship he established with Erdogan during his first term.
Trump spoke approvingly of Erdogan's role in Syria, describing him as a “very smart man” and saying that Türkiye would “hold the key” to what is happening there.
Unhon, the former Turkish ambassador, said: “The Americans will not abandon the (Syrian Democratic Forces).” “But the arrival of someone as unpredictable as Trump should worry them in some way, too.”
