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Your guide to what the 2024 US elections mean for Washington and the world
The writer is CEO of the New America think tank and a contributing editor for the FT
For nearly two decades, China has adhered to the principle of “peaceful renaissance,” a concept developed by State Councilor and thinker Zheng Bijian. He stressed China's desire to grow in power and prosperity through integration into the international system, without posing a threat to other countries.
This strategy worked: from the 1990s to the mid-2000s, China's GDP and global influence rose spectacularly. But Xi Jinping changed course. Beginning in 2017, he launched a set of tactics that became known as “wolf warrior diplomacy.” Chinese diplomats have become more assertive in defending China's interests. Within a few years, the Chinese government had succeeded in undoing much of the goodwill generated by years of peaceful advancement.
In 2023, Xi reversed that. But this aggressive advance of China's interests has made it worse off in the world, creating lasting mistrust and persuading many of China's partners to hedge their bets by strengthening ties with the United States.
Now, US President-elect Donald Trump and his merry band of tech giants are adopting their own brand of Wild West diplomacy, amplified with a dose of Silicon Valley swagger. His defining traits are extreme self-confidence, a disregard for rules of any kind, and a willingness to make deals with anyone anywhere as long as it serves immediate self-interest.
Trump himself lives in a world of subjective preferences, which resonate with his new friends from California. Many men who have risen to power and achieved unimaginable fortunes on the back of technological innovation assume that American superiority over other nations is as clear as the superiority of the technology sector over the rest of the American economy. It's the future, and they control it.
It seems certain that such situations will create a regular stream of small incidents and crises with other countries. However, based on the Chinese experience, the issue will not be this or that anger, but rather the constant accumulation of statements and actions that gradually seep into the domestic politics of other countries, shifting alliances in consequential ways.
As Xi discovered, Beijing's aggressiveness and overt assertion of entitlement have strengthened the position of China hawks in both the United States and the European Union, and sowed seeds of doubt among former China supporters. The long-term damage to the relationship between Washington and Beijing was the result not only of Trump's actions during his last term in office, but also of the profound shift in the views of former Obama officials who entered the Biden administration and relied on many of Trump's opposition. -China's policies.
The push for American technological superiority, in particular, would embolden those in other countries already seeking to challenge the stranglehold of big American tech companies. The European Union has been fighting the power and reach of these companies for more than a decade. The new Trump administration, in the wake of Meta's refusal to deploy its AI in the EU, is likely to force confrontations that would provide the necessary impetus to create integrated European technology and defense markets.
In countries like Mexico, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Indonesia, even where current leaders are friendly with Trump, Washington's continued push to open markets and improve trade terms for American companies will alienate them. Local businessmen and exporters.
The United States, like China in its wolf-fighting years, will increasingly be known for violating and circumventing domestic and international rules. Demanding that everyone “pay” for American military protection may seem more like a global blackmail racket than ever before.
Rising middle powers, now able to play a more independent role on the global stage than they did in the twentieth century, are not willing to act as pawns in the competition between the United States and China. They will instead insist on asserting their national interests in the same way that Trump wants to put America first.
The George W. Bush administration eschewed international rules and processes in favor of “coalitions of the willing.” Since then, Republican unilateralists have been followed by Democratic pluralists who have spent years repairing the damage to US global relations and creating new alliances and informal coalitions.
However, this cycle has eroded confidence in the credibility of the United States as a partner and ally. Add to that a heavy dose of arrogance and insult, and the damage from the next era of American wolf warrior diplomacy could be permanent.
