Mexico is racing to provide additional shelter capacity for tens of thousands of people in cities along the US border, one of which declared a state of emergency ahead of Donald Trump's plan to remove record numbers of migrants.
At least 60,000 additional shelters are being prepared after the US president-elect pledged the largest mass deportations in the country's history, with a focus on people in the United States illegally and with criminal records, people familiar with the plans said.
About half of the illegal immigrants in the United States, estimated at 11 million, are Mexican. About 662,000 noncitizens have been convicted in the United States or face pending criminal charges, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
This week, the city of Tijuana declared a state of emergency due to the expected arrivals, while the mayor of nearby Mexicali said the city would convert a convention center to welcome people.
The federal government hopes to temporarily open 25 shelters, each with a capacity of 2,500 people, to receive deported Mexicans, but has kept the plan quiet and flexible because the numbers remain uncertain, two people familiar with the plans said.
The government declined to comment and referred the Financial Times to President Claudia Sheinbaum's public communications on the issue.
Trump, who will be inaugurated on Monday, has threatened Mexico with 25 percent tariffs on all exports to the United States if it does not do more to prevent migrants and migrants. Drugs from crossing the border. He has legal options to evict people, including executive orders and public health restrictions.
Sheinbaum has widely taken a tougher public response to Trump than some other world leaders. In reference to retaliatory tariffs.
The leftist leader said her team had a plan to respond to the deportations but would not provide details prematurely. The government will have to deal with the influx of refugees while implementing significant budget cuts to the Foreign Ministry and the National Migration Institute.
A planned “panic button” app for migrants to alert their nearest consulate if they think they are about to be detained for deportation has not been launched due to technical difficulties. Additional lawyers will be present at 53 Mexican consulates in the United States.
The government even released A New national anthem For immigrants.
“We have been working for months, since President Trump announced this, to receive our citizens in the best way,” Sheinbaum said this week. “Of course we do not agree to (deportation).”
Trump's tough stance on the border was one of the reasons behind his victory in the November elections, after crossings into the United States reached record levels during Joe Biden's presidency. But Mexico's crackdown at Washington's request, coupled with the expansion of legal routes, has led to fewer irregular crossings in the past year.
The United States has carried out deportations throughout most of its history, with a record removal in fiscal year 2012 under President Barack Obama, when Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported more than 409,000 people. In fiscal year 2024, Biden removed more than 271,000 people, according to US government data.
However, the volume and shape of immigrants to be deported could now change dramatically.
During Trump's first term, Mexico took back migrants from around the world, initially those awaiting asylum claims and later those who were sent back across the border during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sheinbaum suggested this month that she would be open to accepting other nationalities, but it was not clear whether Mexico would return deported citizens from within the United States as well as those near the border.
Returning migrants to their countries of origin presents additional legal and practical difficulties for the United States where those countries are repressive regimes or lack a friendly relationship with Washington.
“If a Venezuelan or Nicaraguan is arrested in Chicago after living five years in the United States, and it is impossible to fly them to Caracas or Managua, does the administration expect Mexico to take them as well?” Adam Isaacson, director of defense oversight at the Washington Office for Latin America, said:
The numbers may not rise immediately, as Trump faces challenges including a shortage of detention space, flights and cooperation from some police forces.
Chad Wolf, Trump's former acting secretary of Homeland Security, noted that the initial goal may be to exceed Obama-era deportation levels.
“My guess is that if they can overcome that in the first year, it's a win,” he told the Financial Times. “They will have to scale it to a place where it has never been scaled before. . . . All of this will take time.
The economic and social repercussions of the program could be significant for both sides. US industries, such as construction and agriculture, rely on undocumented labor, while remittances to Mexico were worth $63 billion in 2023 — more than foreign investment or tourism.
People working with migrants in Mexico said thousands of people would be vulnerable to recruitment by gangs if they were dumped in northern cities where organized crime is rampant.
Historically, Mexico has lacked the infrastructure needed to reintegrate returning citizens, according to Maggie Loredo, an activist who works with deported migrants in Mexico.
“There's nothing really for people who are incarcerated,” she said. “These people are also in more vulnerable circumstances.”
Additional deportations will require shelter, transportation, identity documents, job fairs and mental health resources, said Andrew Seeley, director of the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute.
“The Mexican government (does). . . “We have to be ready in the next six months,” he said, adding that it needs to “find ways to integrate migrants from other countries who will be stuck in Mexico.”
