Investing.com – The online travel industry enters 2025 with mixed prospects, with analysts predicting Barclays (LON:) predicts a more challenging environment in the future.
While it ended 2024 stronger than expected, Barclays notes that rising foreign exchange headwinds and higher expectations are likely to dampen growth in 2025. The bank assessed several key names in a note this week:
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:) stands out as a bullish pick in Barclays' report, despite its relatively high valuation.
Barclays believes BKNG remains the “name to own” in the long term due to “strong execution” and “expected growth (excluding FX)” supported by savings restructuring. “We do not believe there is much justification for further multiple reratings, but there is room for positive estimate revisions,” Barclays notes.
While FX headwinds may impact growth in the short term, Barclays says BKNG's international exposure and category mix, including double-digit growth in alternative accommodation and airfare, positions it for continued success.
On the other hand, Airbnb faces a more cautious outlook, according to Barclays Bank. The bank noted “EBITDA margin compression” in 2025. The bank said the company had previously flagged this margin contraction, but analysts remain concerned that “the consensus remains overly optimistic” regarding its ability to maintain… Profitability amid increased investments in expanding its scope. Barclays set a $110 price target for ABNB, noting that while its “share versus traditional housing” is holding steady, growth initiatives come at a cost.
Expedia (NASDAQ:) offers a hybrid setup, says Barclays. With easier revenue comparisons among peers, EXPE is said to benefit from its domestic exposure, reducing the impact of FX challenges.
However, the bank warns that the company faces softer domestic travel trends and uncertainty due to “management changes” and potential margin pressures. Analysts raised their price target on EXPE from $153 to $166, acknowledging its strong growth but highlighting the risk of execution challenges.
Finally, TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:) is expected to have a difficult 2025, with expectations too high for the company to meet. Barclays trimmed its growth forecast, citing “sharp year-on-year declines” in its core business, even as Viator and TheFork looked promising. Barclays expects a “margin pressure point” and remains cautious on TRIP's outlook for this year.
