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Your guide to what the 2024 US elections mean for Washington and the world
Will American democracy survive Donald Trump's second presidency? This is not a theoretical question. Trump is clearly following the well-known rules of the game for transforming liberal democracy into illiberal democracy. The latter is a description of a dictatorship – a system in which decisions depend on the will of one person who is largely unaccountable to anyone else.
in The spirit of democracyyLarry Diamond of Stanford University argues that liberal democracy consists of free and fair elections, equal protection of the civil and human rights of all citizens, and a rule of law that binds all citizens equally. These then are the “rules of the game”. But the effectiveness of these rules depends on the restrictions imposed on those who temporarily control the state. The most important of these restrictions are the judiciary, political parties, the bureaucracy, and the media. The question is whether these will hold up, first during a Trump presidency, and then over the long term.
In a recent discussion in new republic, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt of Harvard University, authors of the book How democracies dieNote that the classic process of “collective capitulation” or “institutional suicide” in the face of an authoritarian seizure of power has already come a long way. Trump has taken over the Republican Party. His control over his electoral base convinced him to believe the “big lie.” He won the 2020 elections. The Supreme Court decided that the president enjoys immunity from criminal prosecution because of his “official acts,” a principle that British jurist Lord Jonathan Sumption Insistence places the president above the law, and thus he is in fact closer to the king than to the citizen. Not least because we already see strong individuals, e.g Mark ZuckerbergKneeling before their new ruler.
What are they afraid of? That the president will use state agencies as a weapon against them. This is what he and the people around him intend to do. His nominations strongly indicate this. So do plans to replace bureaucrats with people loyal to Trump, which were outlined by the Heritage Foundation “Project 2025”. Such loyalty would be a powerful weapon for tyranny. It would make the bureaucracy obedient to the president and not to the laws they have to implement.
Timothy Snyder of Yale University, an expert on European totalitarianism in the twentieth century, describes nominations to head the departments of Health, Justice, and Defense, as well as to head the intelligence services, As a “decapitation strike”. This is partly because their incompetence and potential malice would seriously harm the functioning of the state. This is also because of the threat of politicization of the federal government, including the Act, against “The enemy within” It would cause serious damage to democracy.
Levitsky and Ziblatt add that all of these behaviors are classic behaviors of would-be autocrats. They come under broad headings such as “arresting referees” and “marginalizing players.” Among the priorities will be further changes in the judiciary at all levels. These include attacks of various types on independent media organizations, journalists, academic institutions and publishers.
Aside from all this, remember the central project to deport illegal immigrants. This seems likely to bring many elements of the new approach together into one. The evacuation of several million people will require a massive military operation, large-scale jurisdictional and local interventions, the establishment of large concentration camps, the suppression of protests, and, finally, the creation of countries to dispose of the displaced.
Could all this really happen? maybe. But the combination of this turmoil and what is likely to be major economic turmoil could turn public opinion strongly against Trump, who has an overwhelming majority. Voting margin By only 1.5 percentage points It was not very popular at all. While he has ardent supporters, he also has ardent opponents. Then, if the constitution stands, it has only this period. Overall, his hold on public opinion and his party is likely to weaken from now on. Trump's abilities as a populist demagogue are exceptional: the party will likely find it impossible to discover a sufficiently charismatic alternative in 2028. His coalition is also showing signs of collapsing: Christian nationalists and immigrant advocates. They are not natural companions From “tech rich people,” like Elon Musk.
It is very likely, then, that any authoritarian push by Trump will go too far and create a strong backlash, even among ordinary people. After all, the latter had not been affected by it yet. It will take courage for people to mobilize. But we must hope that the American people will not easily abandon their country's liberal and Enlightenment traditions in the face of the attacks of today's authoritarian and reactionary opponents. However, it is now a deeply divided country, with polls showing that many Americans have already abandoned their faith in their democracy. If this cannot be corrected, democracy itself may fail. (See charts.)
The crucial question now is how long the institutions of liberal democracy, especially those that govern elections, can survive. Many of Trump's followers, as well as Trump himself, will fear retaliation for the “revenge” they seek to inflict on them. This gives them a great incentive to manipulate the electoral rules of the game, with the help of the judiciary.
If they succeed in subverting the US national election, the “game may be over.” The global consequences of this will be devastating. Without the active participation of a democratic United States, the health of the world's liberal democracy will be in great jeopardy.
The famous Benjamin Franklin He said the United States had “a republic if you can keep it.” We might find out soon if that's possible.
