The collapse of the Assad family in Syria as rebels take control of Damascus

The Assad family's dictatorship that had lasted for more than 50 years was on the verge of collapse on Sunday, as rebel forces seized the capital, Damascus, in a lightning offensive that engulfed the country's largest city in a matter of days.

Russian government defense forces and the Iranian-backed government are struggling to thwart the rebel advance that began with a rapid sweep of the northern city of Aleppo last week, ending a years-long stalemate. The attack was led by the armed Islamist group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham – designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the UN Security Council – and its allies, who expanded their campaign into the south of the country. Now it has also captured the major cities of Hama and Deir ez-Zor.

Hassan Abdul-Ghani, a prominent leader in Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, said in a post on WhatsApp: “We declare the city of Damascus free of the tyrant Bashar al-Assad.” “To the displaced around the world, a free Syria awaits you.”

CNBC was unable to independently verify developments on the ground.

The whereabouts of President Bashar al-Assad, who assumed leadership in 2000 after the death of his father, Hafez, remains uncertain. Multiple media reports, which CNBC has not been able to independently confirm, indicate that he fled Damascus. The Russian Foreign Ministry said later on Sunday that Assad had decided to leave his presidential post and the country.

Syrian Prime Minister Ghazi Jalali said that he remained at home and was ready to support the continuity of Syrian rule.

He said, according to what was reported by NBC News: “We believe that Syria belongs to all Syrians and all its citizens, and that this country can be a normal country, a country that builds good relations with its neighbors without entering into any alliances or regional blocs.” Preparing reports. He added, “This matter is up to whatever leadership the Syrian people choose, and we are ready to cooperate with them by providing all possible facilities.”

UN Special Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen on Sunday He stressed This is a “watershed moment” in the Syrian civil war, and calls for “stable and comprehensive transitional arrangements.”

Several countries evacuated their embassies amid the conflict in Damascus, with outgoing US President Joe Biden “closely monitoring events” and maintaining contacts with regional partners, according to White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savitt.

The advance towards Damascus comes after the militants' arrival in Homs – the country's third-largest city and a crossing point between rebel-controlled territory and the capital. Control of Homs will pose major challenges for the rebels, who will have to confront the concentration of government forces and gain the support of local pro-Assad Alawite communities, says Atlantic Council fellow Qutaiba Idlibi. books On December 5th.

Al-Idlibi added: “More importantly, the rebel advance towards Homs will test Russia’s red lines in Syria. So far, Russia has failed to provide serious military support to support Assad’s defenses across the areas he is losing to the rebels.” “While Russia has launched some air strikes in Idlib and Aleppo to counter the rebel advance, it has not been directly involved in Hama. This restraint reflects Moscow’s strategic calculations to avoid overextension.”

Syria has been rocked by 13 years of civil conflict, sparked by pro-democracy demonstrations in March 2011 against repressive government rule, and similar regional uprisings during the Arab Spring. The Assad administration responded to Syrian protests with lethal force, leading to calls for his resignation, nationwide unrest, and the rise of opposition groups. Peace talks conducted separately by the United Nations, Russia, Iran and Turkey have not yielded results.

The Syrian escalation comes at a time when Assad's allies, Russia and the Lebanese Hezbollah group, have become increasingly preoccupied with the battle on their internal fronts, clashing with Ukraine and Israel, respectively. The Syrian unrest exacerbates the broader conflict in the Middle East, which was sparked in October 2023 by a terrorist attack carried out by the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Israel, leading to a retaliatory military campaign by the Jewish nation in the Gaza Strip and an exchange of fire with Israel. Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, and Iran.

He added, “This rapid attack represents a huge shift in the Syrian conflict and highlights the inherent weakness of the regime.” books Natasha Hall, a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that “the fragile recession collapsed as Assad’s allies, Iran and Hezbollah, were significantly weakened” by Israeli military attacks, while “Russia has stumbled in Ukraine and unrest in “Georgia.”

In the update On his Social Truth platform, US President-elect Donald Trump noted that “Assad's protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, is not interested in protecting him anymore. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place.” “They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine.”

Markets are watching military developments for signs of their impact on supplies in the oil-rich Middle East, as well as further trade disruptions along vital trade routes.