A study published in the Lancet medical journal suggests that the Palestinian death toll from the war in Gaza may be much higher than the official figures announced by the Hamas-run Ministry of Health.
The UK-led study covered the first nine months of the warwhich began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 7, 2023.
It used data from the ministry and an online survey of relatives who reported cases and deaths. It estimated that as of June 30, 2024, 64,260 Palestinians had died from traumatic injuries, meaning an underreporting of deaths of 41%.
The Palestinian death toll has been a source of contention, although the United Nations treats Health Ministry figures as reliable.
The ministry’s figures do not differentiate between fighters and civilians, although A Latest report of the United Nations He said that the majority of the victims verified over a period of six months were women and children.
Israel says Hamas's numbers cannot be trusted. In August, the IDF said it had “eliminated more than 17,000 terrorists,” although it is unclear how it reached that number. The Israeli army insists that it only targets combatants and tries to avoid or minimize civilian casualties.
Israel does not allow international journalists working for media organizations, including the BBC, independent access to Gaza, making it difficult to verify facts on the ground.
The team behind the latest study used a statistical method called “capture-recapture,” a technique that has been used to assess deaths in other conflicts.
The researchers looked at how many people appeared repeatedly in various attempts to calculate deaths. The level of overlap between these lists suggests that the number of deaths directly resulting from traumatic injuries in the conflict could be much higher than hospital figures published by the Ministry of Health.
The Ministry of Health in Gaza issues an updated death toll from the war daily. It collects figures from deaths recorded in hospitals, deaths reported by family members, and deaths from “reliable media reports”.
The report published by The Lancet magazine estimated the death toll between 55,298 and 78,525 people, compared to 37,877 reported by the Ministry of Health.
Report numbers can be significantly higher or lower depending on the technical details of the analysis.
For example, identifying deaths due to “traumatic injuries” in each data set can be difficult. An error in estimating the study estimates may result in higher or lower estimates.
The research also said that 59% of the dead for whom data on gender and age were available were women, children and the elderly.
The war in Gaza was sparked by a Hamas attack in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were returned to Gaza as hostages. Israel launched a large-scale military attack on Gaza in response.
The Ministry of Health says 46,006 people, most of them civilians, were killed in the Israeli campaign.
