The political scene in Lebanon witnessed a radical transformation with the election of Joseph Aoun as president. After more than two years of political stalemate Lebanese Parliament He was elected army chief on Thursday with a majority of 99 votes out of 128.
Aoun's election represents a major achievement for the anti-Hezbollah camp, which reflects the weak influence of the powerful Shiite terrorist organization within the Lebanese political system. Despite this, experts say that Hezbollah remains a formidable force in the country, and that the challenges Aoun faces in balancing domestic politics and foreign relations in Lebanon remain enormous.
For most of the past two years, Hezbollah has worked tirelessly to prevent any movement toward electing a new president. The group had strongly opposed Aoun's nomination. But with the development of the political situation and the overthrow Assad from Syria As things unfolded, Hezbollah was eventually forced to accept Aoun, who obtained the presidency.
“Hezbollah has opposed his election for the past two and a half years, and has obstructed any process to elect a president throughout that period. Now they voted for him in the second round, which indicates that they are in trouble.” “They are weaker, and their influence is not what it used to be,” Paul Salem, vice president of international engagement at the Middle East Institute, told Fox News Digital.
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Newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reviews a guard of honor upon his arrival to the Lebanese Parliament to be sworn in as the new president in Beirut on Thursday, January 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussein Al-Mulla)
Salem points to the broader shift in regional politics, particularly the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which has left Hezbollah increasingly isolated. “It's not just them now Cut off from Iranbut they are also isolated in the region. They are the only Shiite sect between here and Basra, a Sunni holdover in Damascus, which was once dominated by a friendly, pro-Iranian Alawite regime. It is a huge historical shift that leaves the Shiites and Hezbollah deeply isolated. He added that Hezbollah's future is worse than its present.
The United States and Israel, along with other Western and Arab powers, have long sought to distance Lebanon from Hezbollah's influence, and Aoun's election may be a step in that direction.
Aoun, a Maronite Christian and commander of the Lebanese army, took office with a strong message focusing on Lebanon's sovereignty. In his inauguration speech, he stressed the need for the state to monopolize the use of force.
David Schenker, former head of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the US State Department during the first Trump administration, noted that Aoun's speech was a positive and practical step for Lebanon. “He talked about disarming all groups and ensuring that weapons are under state control,” Schenker said. “This was a good step because it shows commitment to sovereignty and the rule of law,” he added.
An updated graphic detailing Hezbollah leadership members who were eliminated by the IDF. (IDF Spokesperson's Unit)
However, Schenker, who is currently a Taub Fellow at the Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, cautioned that Aoun's position as president does not give him absolute power in the Lebanese political system. Schenker noted, “The president is not the most powerful position in Lebanon. The main position will be the prime minister. It remains to be seen whether Aoun will show the same courage in his new role that he showed as chief of staff.”
Although Hezbollah has been weakened militarily due to recent Israeli campaigns and the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, among other key leaders, it still maintains significant influence, especially in southern Lebanon. However, Schenker says the organization's ability to intimidate Lebanon's population is diminishing. “Hezbollah is no longer as strong as it was. It can still reactivate its killing machine if necessary, but it no longer controls the way it did before,” he said.
He added: “Hezbollah thinks it has lost this battle against Israel, and then it loses another battle The battle in Syria. Salem explained, “Their interest now is to remain anonymous, and to have a president and government acceptable to the United States and the region, which they hope, in the end, will protect them from any further Israeli incursions and help their people.” “They need an effective government to secure international aid for the millions displaced by their businesses in southern Lebanon. It is about survival for them, not just politically, but also financially.”
Hezbollah terrorists form a human barricade during the funeral procession of slain Hezbollah supreme leader Fouad Shukr in the southern suburb of Beirut on August 1, 2024. (Photo by Khaled Desouky/AFP via Getty Images)
Aoun's election is of great importance not only to Hezbollah's position in Lebanon, but also to the country's relations with external powers such as the United States and Israel. Lebanon has faced economic collapse, with the value of its currency depreciating by more than 99%, and nearly 80% of the population now living below the poverty line. Hezbollah's previous resistance to international pressure now appears less tenable.
The United States has long supported the Lebanese army, and is expected to strengthen its relations with Aoun, given his role in the army and his pro-sovereignty stance. Schenker said Lebanon's future alliance with the United States and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia could provide the country with much-needed international support.
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Lebanese government ministers pay tribute to newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, standing above, as he delivers his first speech in Parliament after being sworn in as president in Beirut on Thursday, January 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussein Al-Mulla)
“The US military has been close to the Lebanese army for many years,” Salem told Fox News Digital. “This has been the strongest link between the United States and Lebanon. So, for the army chief to come to power, he is a well-known figure in Washington. He is known to the military, and now, he is known to diplomats and politicians. He will be known to President Trump and others over time, and a process may be put in place.” This realignment puts Lebanon on a much more normal path to cooperation with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other regional allies.
Israel will also closely monitor Aoun's presidency. Schenker said that Aoun's commitment United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701This, which calls for the disarmament of southern Lebanon, could lead Lebanon to take a more cooperative stance toward Israel. Schenker said: “Israel will invest in Lebanon’s implementation of Resolution 1701.” He added, “Aoun's position will affect Israel's position toward Lebanon, as the Trump administration has clearly expressed its desire to end the wars in the region.”
