A screen showing the KOSPI index and the exchange rate between the South Korean won and the US dollar inside the trading room at Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, on Monday, December 16, 2024.
Seungjun Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, the international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors informed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
All eyes on the US jobs report
The US non-farm payrolls report for December is scheduled to be released later on Friday. Economists expect this to appear Increased 155,000 job opportunitiesdown from 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.2%. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and CitigroupHowever, I believe that both numbers will be worse than consensus expectations.
US markets are dark, European markets are closing higher
US markets closed their doors on Thursday in honor of former US President Jimmy Carter He died in late December at the age of 100. Regional Europe Stokes 600 The index then rose by 0.42%. Starting the day in negative territory. Danish shares of Moller-Maersk fell 5.8% amid widespread selling in shipping company shares after a wave of selling. Initial business deal It was stuck by dock workers in the United States.
Fed governor believes December cut should be 'last step'
Michelle Bowman, Governor of the US Federal Reserve, said that the Fed Cut interest rates in December It should be “the last step in the policy recalibration phase.” This indicates that Bowman, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, You may oppose further cuts this year. Other Fed officials speaking this week were more optimistic about cutting interest rates.
Ubisoft explores 'strategic and capital options'
French video game publisher Ubisoft She said on Thursday that she had appointed “leading advisors” to… Review options “To extract the best value for stakeholders.” Ubisoft and Tencent's founding Guillemot family were reported in October to be considering a release Acquisition of the company. With Ubisoft shares hitting 10-year lows, the company She faces questions about her future.
(PRO) A nice place to report jobs
The US economy is in a delicate position between growth and inflation. Friday's jobs report shows how difficult this balancing act is. Extreme heat may cause Treasury bond yields to rise; Goldman Sachs said extreme cold weather and fears of an economic slowdown could hold stocks back. but Standard & Poor's 500 It could rise if the report comes in Just the right range.
Bottom line
South Korea can't catch a break. Last month, the country was placed under martial law, its current and alternate presidents were removed, it is its second acting president (so far) and it suffered a tragic plane crash.
How did these events affect the Korean market?
Going by Kospi indicator: Not much. The index, which tracks all common stocks listed on the Korean Stock Exchange, is now higher than it was on Dec. 3, when ousted President Yoon Suk-yul declared martial law.
Its resilience can be traced back to Korea's political history and the Bank of Korea's quick actions – perhaps coincidence –
Yoon and Han Dak-soo are the last two presidential figures to be impeached in Korean history. Before them, Roh Moo-hyun was impeached in 2004 (although this was overturned by a court), while Park Geun-hye was impeached in 2016 and removed from office the following year.
“Presidential impeachments are not unprecedented in Korea, and stocks in the country have, at least, ultimately performed well during the most recent one in 2016/17,” said Thomas Matthews, head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics. He said.
Suhyung Lee, a member of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Council, said that the uncertainty caused by Korea's previous two impeachments “reduced within three to six months.” He told CNBC on January 2, so “political turmoil will likely not have a significant impact on the country's economy.”
The Bank of Korea's actions also appeared to calm markets.
The Bank of Korea announced that within a day Yoon had lifted martial law Emergency measures to calm markets Preventing fluctuations. Likewise, A A sudden interest rate cut of 25 basis points The Bank of Korea's decision at its November meeting, passed before Yoon declared martial law in December, could have softened this blow.
Internal factors may not be the biggest threat to the Korean economy and markets next year. the Downside risks Lee said the tariffs imposed by US President-elect Donald Trump are more worrying, especially for an export-dependent country like Korea.
Korea's recent problems show that when one branch of government fails, other institutions can still support the country and its economy — but it is much more difficult to deal with the governments of others.
CNBC's Lim Hui Jie and Li Ying Chan contributed to this report.
