22 December 2024

Reuters An opposition fighter makes the victory sign while standing on a military plane belonging to forces loyal to the government of Bashar al-Assad, inside Hama Military Airport, December 7, 2024.Reuters

The fall of Bashar al-Assad was almost unthinkable just a week ago, when the rebels began their stunning campaign against the regime from their base in Idlib, in northwestern Syria.

This is a turning point for Syria. Assad came to power in 2000 after the death of his father, Hafez, who ruled the country for 29 years and, much like his son, with an iron fist.

Assad Jr. inherited a tightly controlled, repressive political structure where dissent was not tolerated.

At first, there were hopes that it would be different, more open and less brutal. But that was short-lived.

Assad will forever be remembered as the man who violently suppressed peaceful protests against his regime in 2011, leading to civil war. More than half a million people were killed, and another six million became refugees.

With the help of Russia and Iran, he crushed the rebels and survived. Russia used its massive air power while Iran sent military advisers to Syria, and Hezbollah, the militia it supports in neighboring Lebanon, deployed its well-trained fighters.

Watch: Crowds gather in Damascus after the rebels declared the city “free”

That didn't happen this time. His allies, busy with their own affairs, abandoned him. Without their help, his forces were unable – and in some places, apparently unwilling – to stop the rebels, led by the hardline Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

First, they captured Aleppo, the country's second-largest city, last week, almost without resistance. Then Hama, and a few days later, the main hub of Homs. As opposition fighters also advanced from the east and south, the attack led to the isolation of Damascus. Within hours, fighters entered the capital, Assad's seat of power.

The end of the Assad family's five-decade rule will reshape the balance of power in the region.

Iran is once again witnessing its influence being subjected to a severe blow. During the Assad era, Syria was part of the relationship between the Iranians and Hezbollah, and was essential for transferring weapons and ammunition to the group.

Hezbollah itself has been severely weakened after its year-long war with Israel, and its future is uncertain.

Another Iranian-backed faction, the Houthis in Yemen, have been repeatedly targeted in air strikes. All of these factions, in addition to militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, make up what Tehran describes as the axis of resistance, which has now suffered severe damage.

This new image will be celebrated in Israel, where Iran is viewed as an existential threat.

Many believe that this attack would not have occurred without Türkiye's blessing. Türkiye, which supports some rebels in Syria, denied supporting Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham.

For some time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pressured Assad to participate in negotiations to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict that could allow the return of Syrian refugees.

There are at least three million of them in Türkiye, and this is a sensitive issue locally.

But Assad refused to do so.

Many people are happy that Assad is gone.

But what will happen next? Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham has roots in al-Qaeda and has a violent past.

They have spent recent years trying to rebrand themselves as a nationalist power, and their recent messages have taken on a diplomatic and conciliatory tone.

But many are not convinced, and worry that they may plan to do so after the regime is overthrown.

At the same time, dramatic changes can create a dangerous power vacuum, and ultimately lead to chaos and more violence.

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