Open Editor's Digest for free
Rula Khalaf, editor of the Financial Times, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Three more EU member states – including the most populous Germany – have joined the list of countries with “very low” fertility rates, highlighting the extent of the demographic challenges the region faces.
official statistics It shows Germany's birth rate falling to 1.35 children per woman in 2023, below the UN's “very low” threshold of 1.4 – characterizing a scenario where falling birth rates become more difficult to reverse.
Estonia and Austria also crossed the 1.4 threshold, joining nine EU countries – including Spain, Greece and Italy – whose fertility rates in 2022 were below 1.4 children per woman.
Willem Adema, chief economist at Harvard University, said the decline in birth rates partly reflects “postponing parenthood until the 30s,” which entails “a greater possibility of not having as many children as you want because of the biological clock.” Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Without immigration, low fertility rates mean a shrinking working-age population, which increases pressures on public finances and limits economic growth.
As young people reach life milestones, such as buying a home, later in life, the average age of EU women at birth will rise to 31.1 years in 2023, one year later than a decade ago. The number rises to 31.4 in Germany, and more than 32 in Spain, Italy and Ireland.
Austria I mentioned A decrease to 1.32 children per woman in 2023, compared to 1.41 the previous year. In Estonia, the rate He hits 1.31 in 2023, down from 1.41 the previous year.
Birth rates have fallen across Europe – even in countries such as Finland, Sweden and France, where family-friendly policies and greater gender equality previously helped increase the number of children.
In Finland, the birth rate was above the EU average until 2010, but fell to 1.26 in 2023, the lowest level since records began in 1776, according to official figures. Data.
France had higher The birth rate is 1.79 children per woman in 2022, but at the national level numbers It showed that it fell to 1.67 last year, the lowest level on record.
Rates also fell in countries where they were already very low, reaching 1.12 in Spain and 1.2 in Italy in 2023.
Guangyu Zhang, a UN population chief, called on governments to “introduce more family-friendly and gender-responsive policy measures”, saying this would enable women and men to have as many children as surveys claim they want.
Experts believe that economic and political turmoil partly explains people's tendency to have fewer children.
“You may have a job, but if you're worried about losing it, or worried about inflation, or worried about the conflict in Ukraine, you may still be reluctant to have children,” says Anne Berrington, professor of demography at the University of Southampton. .
Changes in social attitudes may also play a role.
“The criteria for what it means to be a good parent and how intensely involved it is is that a fair number of young people say, ‘Well, in addition to the fact that I don’t need to be a happy parent, it would also be very difficult work for me,’” Adema said. I'm sure I can handle this responsibility.
