CNBC Daily Open: Inflation and dot plots

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, the international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors informed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Suspension of the US government shutdown
The US government narrowly Avoid shutdown After President Joe Biden I fell Temporary government financing bill on Saturday. President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk scuttled a negotiated initial financing plan on Wednesday by harshly criticizing its provisions, specifically insisting on suspending the US debt limit for two years.

A slight slowdown in price increases
Headline inflation in the US in November It rose only 0.1% compared to OctoberThis is according to the personal consumption expenditures price index. On an annual basis, prices increased by 2.4%. Both readings were 10 basis points lower than expected. Core inflation was also 10 basis points lower than expected. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is the US Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.

US and Asia-Pacific markets rise
Friday, Standard & Poor's 500 It rose by 1.09% Dow Jones Industrial Average He added 1.18% Nasdaq Composite It rose by 1.03%. But all indexes Fell in a week. Asia-Pacific stocks rose on Monday After a positive ending on Wall Street Friday. Japan Nikki 225 Advance by about 1.2% Honda, April and Mitsubishi It is said The country's Ministry of Industry reported the start merger talks.

CEOs see the door
Big companies like Boeing, Intel and Starbucksannounced changes to their CEOs this year. They are not alone. There was Departure of 327 CEOs in U.S. public companies this year through November, according to offshore allocation firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This is the highest level since the company started tracking the data in 2010.

(PRO) Bet on Broadcom
Nvidia It is undoubtedly the king of the AI ​​chipset space, and it is hard to see any company beating it in terms of market cap. But one portfolio manager told CNBC so Broadcom It's the next Nvidia in terms of superior performance potential

Stocks Sold on Wednesday After the Fed indicated that it saw Two quarter-point interest rate cuts Next year, lower than the previous four forecasts. “We have moved sideways on inflation for 12 months.” He said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in his press conference.

But the PCE index for November came in colder than expected. “It looks like flat inflation was less challenging this morning,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at e-commerce firm Morgan Stanley.

The Fed stressed once again and once again It is “data driven”. Would the Fed have offered the world a slightly different blueprint if it had had the opportunity to review the personal consumption expenditures data first?

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee gave slight credence to this train of thought, telling CNBC's Steve Liesman that he hoped November's inflation reading “suggested that the two months of flatness were more of a bump than a change in course.” In other words, Goolsby said the economy is “still on track to get to 2%.”

Then again, Powell He said In July, the central bank announced that the central bank would “rely on data, but not on data points” in deciding when to cut interest rates. Even if November's PCE index indicated inflation was back on its downward path, one month's data would not have changed things. Maybe a couple of months in a row of cooler reading?

These questions are rhetorical. Conditional questions cannot be answered, especially in the markets. But with its non-specificity and indirect nature, it highlights the fact that trying to control time or manipulate the market, especially in volatile times like these, may not be the best idea.

Instead, dig deeper into the fundamentals — earnings, cash flow, and future income — that impact stocks even as inflation and interest rates rise and fall. Remember the days when inflation reports and Fed meetings were just another day in the markets?

— CNBC's Jesse Pound, Brian Evans and Sean Conlon contributed to this report.