Could the Fed's dot plots have looked different with November's personal consumption expenditures data?

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Suspension of the US government shutdown
The US government narrowly Avoid shutdown After President Joe Biden I fell Temporary government financing bill on Saturday. President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk scuttled a negotiated initial financing plan on Wednesday by harshly criticizing its provisions, specifically insisting on suspending the US debt limit for two years.

A slight slowdown in price increases
Headline inflation in the US in November It rose only 0.1% compared to OctoberThis is according to the personal consumption expenditures price index. On an annual basis, prices increased by 2.4%. Both readings were 10 basis points lower than expected. Core inflation was also 10 basis points lower than expected. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is the US Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.

Markets rebounded in the US
Friday, Standard & Poor's 500 It rose by 1.09% Dow Jones Industrial Average He added 1.18% Nasdaq Composite It rose by 1.03%. But all indexes Fell in a week. Pan-European Stokes 600 Decreased by 0.88% to The week ended down 1.9%.. Novo Nordisk Shares fell 17.8% after the Danish pharmaceutical company's announcement Disappointing experimental results For a new weight-loss drug.

CEOs see the door
Big companies like Boeing, Intel and Starbucksannounced changes to their CEOs this year. They are not alone. There was Departure of 327 CEOs in U.S. public companies this year through November, according to offshore allocation firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This is the highest level since the company started tracking the data in 2010.

(PRO) Will Rudolph's red nose outsmart Santa?
After a tough few weeks of trading, stocks are poised to end December in the red. but Santa Claus walkwhich traditionally occurs on the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the following, can reignite seasonal cheer. In data going back to 1969, the S&P added 1.3% on average, according to Stock Traders Almanac.

Stocks Sold on Wednesday After the Fed indicated that it saw Two quarter-point interest rate cuts Next year, lower than the previous four forecasts. “We have moved sideways on inflation for 12 months.” He said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in his press conference.

But the PCE index for November came in colder than expected. “It looks like flat inflation was less challenging this morning,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at e-commerce firm Morgan Stanley.

The Fed stressed once again and once again It is “data driven”. Would the Fed have offered the world a slightly different blueprint if it had had the opportunity to review the personal consumption expenditures data first?

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee gave slight credence to this train of thought, telling CNBC's Steve Liesman that he hoped November's inflation reading “suggested that the two months of flatness were more of a bump than a change in course.” In other words, Goolsby said the economy is “still on track to get to 2%.”

Then again, Powell He said In July, the central bank announced that the central bank would “rely on data, but not on data points” in deciding when to cut interest rates. Even if November's PCE index indicated inflation was back on its downward path, one month's data would not have changed things. Maybe a couple of months in a row of cooler reading?

These questions are rhetorical. Conditional questions cannot be answered, especially in the markets. But with its non-specificity and indirect nature, it highlights the fact that trying to control time or manipulate the market, especially in volatile times like these, may not be the best idea.

Instead, dig deeper into the fundamentals — earnings, cash flow, and future income — that impact stocks even as inflation and interest rates rise and fall. Remember the days when inflation reports and Fed meetings were just another day in the markets? (Not a rhetorical question.)

— CNBC's Jesse Pound, Brian Evans and Sean Conlon contributed to this report.