Google's latest announcement about… Willow arrivesa quantum chip that has been reduced Error trends This technology, like some of its predecessors, is a milestone in efforts to bring quantum computing into the real world and, in the coming years, could change the way we think about risk in cryptocurrencies.
Willow's speed is almost incomprehensible — According to Googleit is able to perform a calculation in less than five minutes that would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve. Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
But the accuracy of quantum computing, until now, has also been a big problem, as a quantum is like a garden hose running at full capacity without anyone holding it: the water comes out quickly, but its target is not consistently accurate. In theory, Willow's combination of speed and accuracy could give hackers the tools needed to unlock the algorithms that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rely on.
Qubits and Bitcoin can coexist at the moment
If you don't understand (and a lot of people don't) what makes up quantum computing — qubits — Tim Hollebeek, industry technology strategist at security firm DigiCert, has a simplified way to think about this breakthrough. He says imagine a maze and how a classical computer would try to find its way through the maze from beginning to end. It will try one possible path at a time. “A quantum computer will be able to try each path at the same time, leading to a much faster solution,” Houellebecq said.
While willow It may not be ready for real-world applications However, Willow's speed and accuracy will help pave the way for large-scale quantum computers.
“Part of the problem with qubits is that they are unstable and produce errors,” Hollebeek said. “This chip has great error-correcting capabilities, which alleviates some of the problems with qubits.”
This means that chips that improve after the Willow hack will be able to help hackers target cryptocurrencies — but at least for now, the concern is only theoretical.
“Quantum computers could theoretically solve this problem faster and pose a threat to current cryptographic algorithms if a quantum computer with a sufficient number of qubits can be developed,” Houellebecq said. But he added that the real reason it's easier to breathe today if you own cryptocurrencies is simple. “None exists today, and it's not expected to happen for at least another 5, 10, 15 years,” he said, though the fastest five-year timeline hinges on some unexpected technological advance.
Progress for a decade in the field of cryptocurrencies
A Google spokesperson told CNBC that Willow and cryptocurrencies can coexist. “The Willow chip is incapable of breaking modern encryption,” he said, adding that Google also sees quantum technology with this capability as still years away.
In fact, according to Park Fierbach, a DeFi technology expert and CEO of Radiant Commons, even if Willow could dramatically increase the speed at which cryptocurrencies can be broken, it would take several times the lifetime of the quantum universe. chip to do this. According to NASA, the universe is 13.7 billion years old.
“There is almost no reason to use Willow in this technology in a way that can make traceable progress. It would take a long time,” Feierbach said.
“It is estimated that we are still at least 10 years away from cracking RSA, and that we will need about 4 million physical qubits to do so,” a Google spokesperson said. RSA is an encryption system used in cryptocurrencies.
For reference, Google's processors now scale around 100 physical qubits.
“Quantum secure” algorithms.
A Google spokesperson stressed that the timeline for quantum hacks was widely shared and that Willow did not change it.
“Google is on the right track with its planned roadmap,” he said. “The security community has been aware of the expected timeline for breaking asymmetric encryption for a long time, and has been working to define standards and collaboratively implement new algorithms that will withstand attacks by both classical and quantum computers,” the spokesperson added.
In fact, Houellebecq says the cryptocurrency industry is working on “quantum-secure” encryption.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released several quantum-secure algorithms that resist attacks that future quantum computers might launch, and the institute has a timeline for governments and industry to deploy these algorithms to ensure the safety of the nation's information technology, Houellebecq said. And business secrets.
“Google and other industry leaders have supported standardization and experimented with the algorithms in their initial form,” a Google spokesperson said.
Despite how efficient quantum is at unlocking algorithms (classical cryptographic equations based on factoring huge prime numbers), it is not infallible, and therein lies the promise of quantum secure cryptography.
“They're really good at some things, but not everything,” Houellebecq said, noting that breaking traditional asymmetric encryption is one of the things they're really good at. “Fortunately, there are other difficult mathematical problems that they are not good at solving, and asymmetric cryptography can be upgraded to use those difficult mathematical problems instead of analysis,” he said.
Pious race, Existing cryptocurrencies must evolve to ward off qubits, said the assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. “As the ability of quantum computers to break existing encryption becomes more concerning, new cryptocurrencies could be developed specifically designed to be quantum secure. These new quantum cryptocurrencies will incorporate PQC, cryptographic algorithms that are resistant to the computational power of quantum computers,” Reda said.
Jeremy Allaire, co-founder, chairman and CEO of cryptocurrency firm Circle, told CNBC in an interview last week that the risk is real, but his vision for the future remains focused on the opportunities that will develop. “The bottom line is that quantum cryptography means you can open things more easily, things that had bad old locks, but you can also create better locks,” Allaire said. “So, quantum cryptocurrencies — that quantum is actually going to be a huge turbocharger for crypto computing, crypto applications, crypto money.”
Raza believes that the most sweeping changes brought about by quantum computing will eventually happen beyond cryptocurrencies. Breakthroughs will make hardware and software faster, revolutionize artificial intelligence, and improve data security using ultra-secure encryption methods. Reda said that in everyday life, there will be advances in computing, healthcare, energy and security, and as a result, we should not think of the cryptocurrency industry in isolation while these changes are still evolving. “They will likely change industries,” he said.
