Investing.com – January looks set to be a key month in US politics, with some major events on the horizon.
In a note this week, T.D. Cowen pointed to four developments that are expected to dominate headlines and potentially reshape policy trends.
Trump's return to the presidency
On January 20, Donald Trump will officially begin his term as president. According to T.D. Cowen, “several executive orders” are expected on his first day, including one to freeze pending federal rulemaking.
The bank believes these orders are unlikely to affect independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve. Trump is also expected to make key appointments at agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission, the CFPB, and the FHFA, with potential surprises in areas like immigration and international relations.
Key fiscal policy appointments
The resumption of Trump's appointments to crucial financial positions is another focus. As T.D. Quinn points out, “Personnel was politics in the first Trump administration,” underscoring the importance of his choices for roles such as Comptroller of the Currency, Administrator of the Federal Housing Administration, and Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. These appointments are expected to determine the course of regulation and fiscal policy in the coming months.
Election of the Speaker of the House of Representatives
The Republican Party will work to elect a Speaker of the House of Representatives, where Mike Johnson will be the most likely candidate. However, T.D. Quinn points out that the margin of victory is razor-thin, with Johnson needing 218 votes if all members participate. “The margin is so tight that the risks are high,” TD Coin warns, suggesting potential disruption to the process.
Cannabis rescheduled hearings
The DEA's actions will move into the certification phase regarding the potential reclassification of cannabis as a Schedule 3 substance. T.D. Quinn expects this to make headlines, though any final decision will be in the hands of the Trump administration.
“We still believe the Trump team will support moving cannabis to Schedule 3 even though we may need to wait until later in the year to take action,” the bank said.
